Note: The Afternoon Kickoff has the day off today as I move back up to State College. While it means less content today, it also means we're getting close to the start of the season, and a big increase in football content from us is on the horizon.
Projected Order of Finish
North Division
1. Kansas Jayhawks
Top Offensive Player: QB Todd Reesing, Top Defensive Player:
The gritty Reesing returns to lead the nation's No. 8 passing offense. Three starters are gone up front, but the Kansas offense should keep rolling behind Reesing, RB Jake Sharp and 1,000-yard receivers Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Top Offensive Player: C Jacob Hickman, Top Defensive Player: DT Ndamukong Suh
QB Joe Ganz and his top two receivers are gone, along with RB Marlon Lucky. The Cornhuskers are solid on both lines, especially with Suh -- who is in the discussion for the country's best defensive player after leading the team in tackles, sacks and tackles for loss.
3. Missouri Tigers
Top Offensive Player: RB Derrick Washington, Top Defensive Player: OLB Sean Weatherspoon
A rebuilding year appears likely for Missouri with just nine starters returning and big-time departures on offense in QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman. However, QB Blaine Gabbert has drawn praise in the preseason, and if he is ready to lead the team from the start, the Tigers could still contend for a division title.
4. Colorado Buffaloes
Top Offensive Player: QB Cody Hawkins, Top Defensive Player: CB Cha'pelle Brown
It's surprising that Dan Hawkins' three years at Colorado have been so mediocre and now is the time to start turning things around. After ranking No. 100 in scoring, the offense must live up to its potential with nine starters return and Cody Hawkins in his third season under center.
5. Kansas State Wildcats
Top Offensive Player: WR Brandon Banks, Top Defensive Player: DE Brandon Harold
Gone is Ron Prince and back in is 69-year-old Bill Snyder after three years away from the job. The early departure of QB josh Freeman is a big blow to the offense, but the main concern for Snyder should be reshaping the defense. Eight starters return, but those eight starters were part of a defense that ranked No. 117 (479.1 yards allowed per game).
6. Iowa State Cyclones
Top Offensive Player: G Reggie Stephens, Top Defensive Player: MLB Jesse Smith
Few thought the Cyclones would lose coach Gene Chizik to an SEC school after a 2-10 season, but Auburn took back its former defensive coordinator. In his place, the Cyclones hired former Auburn defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads. Rhoads has 15 returning starters to work with, but the talent level is clearly inferior to most of the Big 12.
South Division
1. Texas Longhorns
Top Offensive Player: QB Colt McCoy, Top Defensive Player: DE Sergio Kindle
McCoy had a brilliant '08 season, throwing for 3,859 yards and 34 touchdowns. With just two starters gone from the nation's No. 5 scoring offense, the unit should continue to pile up points. If the secondary improves (259.4 passing yards allowed per game), this is a national championship caliber team again.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
Top Offensive Player: QB Sam Bradford, Top Defensive Player: DT Gerald McCoy
Oklahoma averaged more points than anyone in the nation last season at 51.1 points per game. Heisman winner Bradford is back, along with two 1,000-yard runners in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray. The offensive line must be rebuilt, but the offense should still score at will, while the defense will improve after a mediocre season.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Top Offensive Player: WR Dez Bryant, Top Defensive Player: OLB Andre Sexton
The Cowboys have all the pieces in place to have another big season offensively with QB Zac Robinson (3,064 yards), RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 yards), Bryant (1,480 yards) and first team All-Big 12 OT Russell Okung. If the defense can stop anybody this season under new coordinator Bill Young, Oklahoma State should win double-digit games for the first time since the Barry Sanders era.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Top Offensive Player: OT Brandon Carter, Top Defensive Player: DE McKinner Dixon
Taylor Potts is the next in a line of QBs who inevitably throw for at least 350 yards every time out. But with just four starters returning to the Red Raiders' run-and-shoot offense, the team is bound to take a small step back from it's 11-2 season -- especially with Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State each returning more experience.
5. Baylor Bears
Top Offensive Player: QB Robert Griffin, Top Defensive Player: MLB Joe Pawelek
After years of irrelevance in the Big 12 basement, things are starting to look up under Art Briles. A dual threat, Griffin had a huge freshman season and has star written all over him. Despite playing in a very tough division, Griffin, Pawelek and 14 other returning starters will be enough for Baylor to earn its first bowl bid since the 1994 Alamo Bowl.
6. Texas A&M Aggies
Top Offensive Player: QB Jerrod Johnson, Top Defensive Player: SS Trent Hunter
While 10 starters return on offense, a usually strong rushing offense finished No. 114 last season. The numbers are sure to improve this season -- especially if the offensive line actually stays healthy -- but the old Wrecking Crew defense hasn't shown any signs of a return to form after also finishing No. 114 last season. It's hard to imagine the Aggies finishing anywhere but sixth in the division, although a strong recruiting class brings hope for the future.
Big 12 Title Game: Texas over Kansas
*****
After a few seasons with Oklahoma, Texas and no one else, the emergence of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas put the Big 12 into the discussion with the SEC for the nation's toughest conference. The Big 12 South is the strongest division in the country, edging out the SEC West.
The conference is absolutely loaded with quarterbacks. Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Todd Reesing, Zac Robinson and Robert Griffin are all elite quarterbacks, and there is a plethora of talent at the other skill positions too. Oklahoma has a pair of 1,000-yard backs, Oklahoma State's Dez Bryant is the nation's most talented receiver and Dezmon Briscoe of Kansas and Jordan Shipley of Texas are both capable of All-American seasons as well.
If only anyone in the conference played defense. Sure, it's more difficult to play defense when so much talent is present on the league's offenses. But Texas ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in yards allowed last season. The 342.9 yards per game average was good enough for just 51st nationally. Meanwhile, 11 SEC teams ranked in the top 40.
Defenses were exposed in the bowl games, as Oklahoma's explosive offense was finally held in check by Florida after scoring 55.1 points per game in conference play, while Oklahoma State allowed 42 points to Oregon and Texas Tech allowed 47 to Mississippi.
With so much talent returning, however, the level of defense should improve slightly, while offenses will continue to roll.
Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas Tech are all very good, but again, the real conference title game is at the Texas State Fair when Oklahoma plays Texas. Of course, the teams finished tied last year and Oklahoma got the national title game trip despite falling in the Red River Shootout, but regardless, the game is sure to have a significant impact on the BCS championship picture.
*****
Award Predictions
Offensive Player of the Year: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Defensive Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Freshman of the Year: Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
Coach of the Year: Mack Brown, Texas
All-Big 12 Team
QB- Colt McCoy, Sr., Texas
RB- DeMarco Murray, Jr., Oklahoma
RB- Kendall Hunter, Jr., Oklahoma State
WR- Dez Bryant, Jr., Oklahoma State
WR- Dezmon Briscoe, Jr., Kansas
TE- Jermaine Gresham, Sr., Oklahoma
OT- Russell Okung, Sr., Oklahoma State
OT- Trent Williams, Sr., Oklahoma
G- Kurtis Gregory, Sr., Missouri
G- Evan Eike, So., Texas A&M
C- Chris Hall, Sr., Texas
DE- Sergio Kindle, Sr., Texas
DE- McKinner Dixon, Sr., Texas Tech
DT- Gerald McCoy, Jr., Oklahoma
DT- Ndamukong Suh, Sr., Nebraska
LB- Sean Weatherspoon, Sr., Missouri
LB- Joe Pawelek, Sr., Baylor
LB- Travis Lewis, So., Oklahoma
CB- Cha'pelle Brown, Sr., Colorado
CB- Dominique Franks, Jr., Oklahoma
S- Jordan Lake, Sr., Baylor
S- Earl Thomas, So., Texas
K- Alex Henery, Jr., Nebraska
P- Derek Epperson, Jr., Baylor
KR- Perrish Cox, Sr., Oklahoma State
Top Non-Conference Games
1. Georgia at Oklahoma State, Sept. 5
2. Oklahoma vs. BYU, Sept. 5 (at Arlington, Texas)
3. Oklahoma at Miami, Oct. 3
4. Nebraska at Virginia Tech, Sept. 19
5. Colorado at West Virginia, Oct. 1
Top Conference Games
1. Texas vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 17 (at Dallas)
2. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, Nov. 28
3. Texas at Oklahoma State, Oct. 31
4. Texas Tech at Texas, Sept. 19
5. Oklahoma at Kansas, Oct. 24
-Matt Brown