In one week, Penn State will know its fate. Until then, there's nothing else to do but sit and wait.
The outcomes of this upcoming weekend's games probably won't impact the Nittany Lions' Bowl Championship Series (BCS) chances. No, it all essentially hinges on a Penn State-or-Iowa debate.
Penn State's rout over Michigan State in its regular season finale on Nov. 21 ensured a second straight double-digit win season for the first time since 1994. Perhaps more importantly, it also kept the team's BCS hopes alive.
In fact, Jerry Palm of collegebcs.com said there's a 65 percent chance Penn State gets picked instead of Iowa as the Big Ten's second BCS representative, even though the Hawkeyes beat the Lions at Beaver Stadium.
"They are a more traditional power," Palm said. "They've got the charismatic legendary coach, and they have a great relationship with both of the bowls that would have any chance at selecting Penn State. I think there are a lot of advantages."
Heading into the final weekend, the Lions come in at No. 11 in the BCS, two spots behind Iowa. In all likelihood, Texas will play the Alabama-Florida winner for the BCS National Championship. Besides the conference champions, four at-large bids remain. No. 4 TCU and the SEC Championship Game loser will nab two of them. Penn State or Iowa will grab another, and Boise State looks good for the final slot, barring a major upset like a Texas loss to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship.
Although Oklahoma State's loss to Oklahoma appeared to ensure a second Big Ten team placing in the BCS, Palm believed the league would have received a second bid regardless. The team that needed help and could have been the odd team out -- and may be again if Texas loses this Saturday -- was Boise State.
As it is, the Orange Bowl and Fiesta Bowl are the expected BCS destinations for the Lions or the Hawkeyes. Although Iowa won the head-to-head matchup in Beaver Stadium this September, Palm said the only other real bonus the Hawkeyes have is a large alumni base in the Phoenix area, which is the site of the Fiesta Bowl. That said, Palmer thinks the Fiesta Bowl is the most likely destination for the second Big Ten pick.
Of course, head-to-head results aren't the final factor in the selection process. Even as recently as 2007, Kansas was picked by the Orange Bowl ahead of Missouri, even though the Tigers knocked off the then-unbeaten Jayhawks to clinch the Big 12 North division title. But after Missouri lost the conference championship game to Oklahoma, Kansas was selected despite ranking behind the Tigers in the major polls.
Although a similar situation could happen this season, Penn State linebacker Navorro Bowman didn't shy away from Penn State's obstacles.
"I want to play in a BCS bowl for sure, but you got to give credit to Iowa," Bowman said. "They came and beat us at home, so that's definitely got to be added into the equation, but I know our team is a team that's going to get better and we're gonna be able to play with anybody."
Despite the win against the Spartans setting the perfect stage for open lobbying for his team for the BCS over Iowa, head coach Joe Paterno didn't expand much on the debate.
"Please, don't get me into all of the ethics of college football every time I get up here," he said after the Michigan State game about the bowl-selection process. "We're playing, we won, I'm pleased, the kids played hard. We had a tough time out here, Michigan State's team came out and they went at it. I'm just happy for [our players], and I hope they get the kind of game that they'll be excited about."
