It's a two-team race for one Bowl Championship Series (BCS) berth, according to one BCS expert.

Jerry Palm, of collegebcs.com, said BCS bowl committees are likely to choose between Iowa and Penn State to fill one of their at-large slots if both teams win out and remain ranked in the top-14 of the BCS standings.

"Somebody is going to take a Big Ten team because they're just too attractive," Palm said.

The BCS game Penn State may land in depends on conference champions and traditional bowl tie-ins, and at this stage, the Orange Bowl appears most likely.

If No. 3 Texas beats Kansas and Texas A&M and wins the Big 12 championship game, as it's favored to do, it will almost certainly play in the BCS National Championship game.

The Fiesta Bowl, which typically hosts the Big 12 champion, would get a replacement pick should Texas play for the national title. To keep its relationship with the Big 12 happy, it may be inclined to choose No. 12 Oklahoma State if the Cowboys win out.

The Sugar Bowl, which pulls the SEC champion if that team is not in the national championship game, will almost certainly select the SEC runner-up with its replacement, either No. 1 Florida or No. 2 Alabama, who will meet in the SEC title game Dec. 5.

With Ohio State headed to the Rose Bowl, the Orange Bowl has an open slot opposite the ACC champion.

Last year's Orange Bowl between Virginia Tech and Cincinnati was the lowest-rated BCS game ever. The 2008 game between Wake Forest and Louisville didn't fare much better.

"TV ratings could have as much of a play as ever," said Palm, adding Penn State will have the TV advantage over Iowa even though both fan bases travel well. "The ratings in this series are clearly suffering with this format."

Larry Wahl, vice president of communications and community outreach for the Orange Bowl, listed tourism, local economic impact, ticket sales, stakeholders' interests, local team appeal and travel distance as factors the Orange Bowl committee takes into consideration when inviting an at-large team to its Jan. 5 bowl.

Having national appeal appears to make the Nittany Lions a favorable option for the Orange Bowl.

"They would be attractive like any of the 14 would be," Wahl said. "We'd have to look at the whole pool for who is the most attractive."

Being attractive is where Penn State appears to have the edge over the Hawkeyes, who beat the Lions 21-10 on Sept. 26.

"Iowa is more deserving in the sense they beat [Penn State] in the regular season and are ranked ahead at the moment," Palm said. "But deserving is not relevant when it comes to the bowl."

Of course, Penn State's BCS hopes go out the window with a loss at Michigan State on Saturday.

After Saturday's Senior Day win against Indiana, senior defensive tackle Jared Odrick said the emotions of playing his last game in Beaver Stadium didn't hit him because there's more to play for this season, something quarterback Daryll Clark is excited is on the table.

"As it gets closer, you hear about some non-BCS games, and then you hear about the Orange Bowl," Clark said. "We're excited about it, excited we know we have a lot to play for."