It's often just a thin line that separates a great season from a disappointing one. For Penn State, however, that line is now very clear.
This season was supposed to be defined by a three-game stretch in October against Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State.
Instead, it will be defined by a three-hour stretch in November, against Michigan State.
A victory by the Nittany Lions over the Spartans would clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title and a spot in the Rose Bowl, and that would make this a terrific year for Penn State, by any measure.
But a defeat likely drops the Nittany Lions into third place in the conference and a second-tier bowl and, no matter what your pre-season expectations, the season becomes a significant disappointment.
That's the reality.
To put it another way, today's matchup is a defining moment of Penn State's now 16-year tenure in the Big Ten. When this all began, with a 10-2 season in 1993 followed by 12-0 in 1994, there were some who thought the Lions would dominate the Big Ten the way they used to dominate as an independent in the East.
We know now that was not the case.
Here are some sobering statistics. In 15 previous seasons in the conference, Penn State has finished among the top two, or tied for a spot in the top two, just three times (only once in the last 10 years). That's the same number of times that Northwestern and Purdue have finished in the top two, and not within sniffing distance of Ohio State (11) or Michigan (9).
Further, this is the first time as a Big Ten team that the Lions have faced such a significant moment in a season-ending game: playing a formidable opponent with the season still on the line.
In the great 1994 season, the Rose Bowl trip already was clinched before the final game against a .500 Michigan State team. In the disappointing end to the 1999 season, the Rose Bowl opportunity already was lost in the next-to-last game. In the comeback season of 2005, the Lions needed a final victory to clinch a major bowl, but that was against another .500 Michigan State team.
This time it's a 9-2 Michigan State team that has major bowl designs of its own.
Penn State might have surprised some people who would have thought 10-2 at the start of the year would be just great. But I suspect they wouldn't think 10-2 is so great now, not after 10-1.
For those who expect to win every game, every year, however, the Iowa loss still grates. There are those who think nothing less than the BCS so-called championship is all that matters. I feel sad for them.
Because the world did not end at Iowa City.
To lose but a single game by a single point on the road and to wind up as a consolation prize with a conference title and in the most historic of all the bowl games, well, if you're not happy with that, you need to get a new hobby.
Eleven-and-one and a trip to the Rose Bowl is a heck of a year -- particularly given Penn State's Big Ten history.
That's only with a victory, however.
The flipside is this: When you're contending for the national championship at Halloween, then for the conference title at home on the final weekend, and wind up playing in a bowl named for a bank or a steak joint, it is a major letdown.
And that's what happens to the Lions if the Spartans win.
There could be more than the Rose Bowl at stake today, too.
While it might seem odd that, after 43 years, Paterno's future could hinge on one game, it's not inconceivable that what happens today will send the university's decision-makers in one direction or another.
Yet, it could. This one is big. Simple as that. This one defines the year.
Ira Miller, assistant sports editor of The Daily Collegian in 1963-64, is the Senior NFL Columnist for The Sports Xchange, based in the San Francisco Bay Area. His weekly column, Five Burning Questions on the NFL, can be read at www.comcast.net. For 28 years through the 2005 season, he covered the NFL for the San Francisco Chronicle. He is a past president of the Pro Football Writers of America, has won awards six times in the PFWA annual writing competition and, in 1993, was voted by his peers the Dick McCann Memorial Award for "long and distinguished reporting in the field of pro football.'' The McCann Award plaque hangs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame at Canton, Ohio.
Ira Miller, assistant sports editor of The Daily Collegian in 1963-64, is the Senior NFL Columnist for The Sports Xchange, based in the San Francisco Bay Area. His weekly column, Five Burning Questions on the NFL, can be read at www.comcast.net. For 28 years through the 2005 season, he covered the NFL for the San Francisco Chronicle. He is a past president of the Pro Football Writers of America, has won awards six times in the PFWA annual writing competition and, in 1993, was voted by his peers the Dick McCann Memorial Award for "long and distinguished reporting in the field of pro football.'' The McCann Award plaque hangs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame at Canton, Ohio.
