As Iowa fans stormed the Kinnick Stadium grass in Iowa City Saturday night, a reporter so used to witnessing triumphant Penn State players and fans sat quietly at home, scribbling notes on a small pad.
One of these sloppy observations read simply:
"They lost" with a "?" scarred into the yellow paper.
After a day on campus in which one of my political science professors started class with regretful words concerning Penn State's upset loss at Iowa, I looked back over the same, three pages of chicken scratch. Alas, I had taken another note, perhaps to remind myself of a duty to the readers:
"What now?"
What can Penn State do now that its national title hopes have been vanquished?
Well, the easy answer is beat Indiana this weekend. Beat Michigan State the next. Win the Big Ten championship. Take a nice New Year's trip out to Pasadena, Calif. to play in the Rose Bowl.
Not so fast. All is not lost.
No. 8 Penn State still has a shot at a title, and with a lot of help could play for the national championship despite its one loss.
Here's the skinny.
Penn State will need to finish off its schedule while those above the Nittany Lions will need to lose.
Currently, three teams ahead of the Lions are undefeated. Alabama, Texas Tech and Utah. Just the top two dogs play for the title, so someone is going to have to drop a game. Utah plays No. 17 BYU on Nov. 22. If the Utes, who play in the non-BCS Mountain West Conference, lose this game, that's one down for Penn State.
'Bama and Tech are different stories. The Crimson Tide is powered by its defense and surrenders just over 13 points per game. Neither of the Tide's remaining foes, Mississippi State on Nov. 15 or Auburn on Nov. 29, crack the list of top 100 scoring offenses this season. Alabama has lost its last six meetings with hated rival Auburn, however.
Penn State will need the Tigers to pull off the upset. Even if Alabama loses, the Tide has already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game and will play No. 4 Florida on Dec. 6. Penn State will be pulling for Florida.
The Red Raiders will have it easier. They have one more road test at No. 5 Oklahoma and then should slap around Baylor at home. Penn State will need Tech to lose at least one of these games. A Tech choke in the Big 12 championship game against No. 12 Missouri would be nice for the Lions.
The rest of the pack? They've got to tank, too.
Texas, Florida, Oklahoma and USC all have one loss.
Penn State will need a miracle for Texas to lose. The Longhorns' toughest remaining game will be against Kansas (6-4, 3-3). Then the 'Horns have a gimme at home against Texas A&M on Nov. 27.
Oklahoma should lose to Texas Tech and if the No. 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys could upset the Sooners on Nov. 29, it would be good for Penn State. It would be better for Penn State if Oklahoma beat Tech, then lost to the Cowboys, however.
USC should win out against Stanford (5-5, 4-3), Notre Dame (5-4) and UCLA (3-6, 2-4). Trojans fans should beware the Cardinal, however. Last season, Stanford upset USC in Los Angeles in week five. It could happen again -- another dream scenario for Penn State.
Florida is tricky. The Gators will play four games in 22 days -- starting with No. 25 South Carolina on Nov. 15 and ending with 'Bama in the SEC championship. Between those two games, Tim Tebow will take a halftime nap against The Citadel on Nov. 22, but then the Gators have to play No. 19 Florida State.
Take a breath.
The best-case scenario for Penn State? Alabama loses to Auburn -- a team that taps into the dark side to defeat it's rival -- and then the Tide loses to Florida in the SEC title game.
Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma. The Sooners, then, lay an egg at Oklahoma State. Florida loses to either the Gamecocks or the Seminoles. USC loses any of its games and Utah loses to BYU. All this could happen putting Penn State still a one-loss team in the title game against one-loss Texas Tech. But Penn State must win and do so dominantly to convince voters.
To do this, the Nittany Lions will have to do some soul searching in order to return to form. Daryll Clark will have to get in touch with the guy who used to be calm under pressure, firing footballs to his own receivers in the midst of chaos. Clark will have to rediscover his knacks for tiptoeing through collapsing pockets and sidestepping incoming blitzers.
Jordan Norwood will have to warm his hands up.
Aaron Maybin needs to get angry at all of the offensive linemen that have held him all season and needs to rekindle his natural hatred of quarterbacks.
Anthony Scirrotto will have to lower the boom on an opposing wideout to knock away the memories of that pass interference call and regain the confidence of a defense that was shaken in Iowa City.
Derrick Williams, A.Q. Shipley and Sean Lee need to convene with their teammates and remind them who they are and how no team could stop them just three weeks ago.
It might be close, but it's not over yet.
