The mere idea of Penn State snapping its 11-year spell of futility against Michigan tomorrow has kept Nittany Lion fans rapt as this season has moved forward. They can see the potential for Michigan's undoing, and they wonder if this is Penn State's year. But they need to forget history.
This matchup should illuminate the future. In fact, the Penn State-Michigan meeting will leave an emphatic impression, shaping the early view of both teams. You'd be hard-pressed to draw a definitive conclusion from a game this early, but it should serve as a solid indicator.
There is only one confounding variable: Chad Henne. The senior quarterback was injured against Oregon two weeks ago, and the official word on his status is "day-to-day," Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said.
It's hard to imagine Henne playing, given how guarded the Michigan athletic department has been about his entire situation. Losing him certainly changes the complexion of the Wolverines. But his replacement, true freshman Ryan Mallett, was impressive enough against Notre Dame. He threw for three touchdowns and knew to lean on running back Mike Hart. So the gravity of this game is not lost with Henne.
If the Wolverines (1-2) stay competitive, it will go far in restoring some of the credibility lost after the Appalachian State upset. And they will reenter the Big Ten-title talk with a win against Penn State.
"If we can beat a team like that, it shows that we're here, we're back and we can compete," Hart said this week. "We'll come out and find how good we are. Can we come out and compete with these guys? Can we beat these guys?"
Even still, No. 10 Penn State might have more to prove. It's true the Lions (3-0) are undefeated. It's true that they've rolled up the scoreboard in each of their wins. But they've somehow managed to leave an unpleasant taste after each one.
In each of the first three games, there's been something to give you reason to wonder. Most of it stems from offensive issues. Whether it's a slow start for the running game or quarterback Anthony Morelli's inconsistencies, there are issues that need ironing.
The offensive ailments are all the more troubling because Penn State has played one of the nation's easiest non-conference schedules.
"It's our first road game. I think that we're more anxious to get out there because we know it's gonna be a tough game," Penn State wide receiver Derrick Williams said. "We think we're ready to play in those big-time tough games. ... All the guys are ready to get this first Big Ten game and show the world how good Penn State can be."
That's not to say a win at Michigan will absolve those ills, but it can at least breed confidence.
If Penn State can even scrape by on the road against Michigan, maybe it can do the same in the future. Maybe Penn State can just shuffle its way through the Big Ten. With the way the conference has taken shape early, that might not be hard.
"We haven't been under a lot of duress," Joe Paterno said. "I've always said you never know how good a football team you have until they have to do some things when they're under a lot of pressure. I think we're still in the stage of finding out, 'How good are we?' "
And Penn State should get a strong indication of how good -- or bad -- it is this weekend against Michigan. So this shouldn't be viewed with the long lens of those who talk about redemption. No matter what Penn State fans think about this series, no matter how much they bemoan the past, history won't matter tomorrow.
What matters is that we should get a peek at what's in store five, six and seven weeks ahead, when title talk is legitimate. We should get a read on both of these teams. And that's something to take with you as the season moves forward.
