They've beaten each other up for more than two months now, and as if that wasn't enough, beginning today, the Big Ten tournament will give opponents a chance to run over NCAA tournament dreams one more time. Ohio State and Wisconsin are safely across into March Madness, but six other conference teams can play themselves in or out of the Big Dance, while three, including Penn State, are nothing but road bumps in the way. Here's how the Collegian men's basketball writers think it will all play out in Chicago.
Jon Blau
Who will win: Michigan State
Why? After losing two straight games to open the conference season, the Spartans won four straight games, the first coming against Northwestern. It just so happens that Michigan State comes into the tourney having lost two straight games, and the Wildcats are its first-round gift. Four straight victories equal a Big Ten title. Fiery Spartan guard Drew Neitzel could be on a mission. He missed a potentially game-winning three this past weekendagainst Wisconsin, and imagine if No. 1 Ohio State faces Michigan State in the championship game. Neitzel missed another last-second three in a two-point loss to No. 1 Ohio State on Jan 27. Payback may just be in the cards.
Who else steers clear of trouble: For some reason, Iowa (17-13, 9-7 Big Ten) always plays well in the conference tourney -- advancing to the semifinals and finals the last two years, respectively -- and with a mediocre NCAA tournament résumé, the Hawkeyes will need to repeat that success if they want to have a happy Selection Sunday. After losing to last-place Penn State last Wednesday, despite 30 points from guard Adam Haluska, Iowa head coach Steve Alford will have something to prove, even if he comes up short.
Who will gets blindsided: Ohio State and its new, tighter-fitting uniforms are in for a harsh welcome to tournament play. Thad Matta, the Big Ten Coach of the Year, has a freshman-laden squad that will most likely see senior-driven Michigan in the second round. The Wolverines were four points short of whacking the Buckeyes during the season finale.
Tournament MVP: Drew Neitzel. If the Spartans make it through as predicted, Neitzel will be the driving force. The all-conference selection has averaged about 26 points per game against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Teams In:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan
Teams Out:
Purdue
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Penn State
Jon Blau is a junior majoring in journalism and a Collegian men's basketball writer. His e-mail address is jsb5000@psu.edu.
Corey McLaughlin
Who will win: Ohio State
Why? The Buckeyes will reach the conference championship game just as they won the Big Ten regular season title -- sometimes ugly for such a talented team. In the final, though, they should show up to play their best basketball. They will meet Michigan State, led by Drew Neitzel, which will have already knocked off higher-seeds Wisconsin and Indiana. The Buckeyes won't be able to afford to overlook the Spartans. And when Greg Oden, the nation's scariest big man, and Mike Conley, Jr., one of the quickest guards in the country, along with a bevy of talented shooters play well as a group, they'll show why they are the No. 1-ranked team in the country.
Who else steers clear of trouble: Illinois should make it to the Big Dance after beating Penn State, whether or not it loses to Indiana in the next round. Purdue, the five seed, needs just one win to reach the semifinals. The Boilermakers will beat Iowa and make a good case by playing well enough against Ohio State to impress enough members of the selection committee.
Who gets blindsided: Wisconsin, by losing its first round game to Michigan State. Only a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor prevented Michigan State from beating Wisconsin for the second time last Saturday. This time, the Badgers won't be so lucky. Not having Brian Butch changes the way Wisconsin has played all season, and Michigan State will win following the leads of Neitzel and rising star Raymar Morgan.
Tournament MVP: Greg Oden, OSU. It will be hard to give this award to anyone besides the 7-foot freshman sensation if the Buckeyes win the tournament.
Teams in:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Indiana
Illinois
Purdue
Teams out:
Michigan
Iowa
Northwestern
Minnesota
Penn State
Corey McLaughlin is a junior majoring in journalism and anthropology and a Collegian men's basketball writer. His e-mail address is cpm167@psu.edu.
Andrew Wible
Who will win: Wisconsin
Why? I realize it's a cop-out, but I have to go with the Badgers. Sure, they lost center Brian Butch with a dislocated elbow, but they still have Big Ten Player of the Year Alando Tucker, and he won't let them lose. The senior forward was injured when Wisconsin won its last Big Ten tournament title in 2004, and he wants a trophy to add to his legacy in Madison. Plus, he's from Chicago, and the windy city faithful will be pulling for the hometown kid. No. 2 seeds have won more Big Ten tournaments than any other seed, and Wisconsin is a prime candidate to continue the trend.
Who else steers clear of trouble: Michigan State. Though the Spartans won't have the firepower to get past Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, a first-round win, coupled with a close lose to the Badgers will be more than enough to enhance the Spartans' résumé and get Michigan State into the tourney.
Who gets blindsided: Purdue. The Boilermakers need a win to boost their chances at a berth, but they aren't going to get it. Iowa's Adam Haluska will light-up the Boilermaker defense in its opening game. And Purdue -- whose record has been inflated by a weak second-half schedule -- will be relegated to the NIT.
Tournament MVP: Alando Tucker, Wisconsin. The league's best player will solidify himself as National Player of the Year by leading the hobbled Badgers to the conference title while averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds during the tournament.
Teams In:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan State
Teams Out:
Penn State
Northwestern
Minnesota
Iowa
Michigan
Purdue
Andrew Wible is a sophomore majoring in journalism and a collegian men's basketball writer. His e-mail address is ajw5050@psu.edu.
