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[ Friday, Dec. 1, 2006 ]

Experts undecided over snowfall predictions

Collegian Staff Writer

Some meteorologists are predicting heavy snowfall on the East Coast this season, though many locals say they have reservations.

Accuweather meteorologist John Feerick said while temperatures will be close to normal, they are forecasting a higher-than-average snowfall for the area because of a weak to moderate El Niño.

"Generally, that would mean more precipitation across the southern United States," he added.

However, Pennsylvania State Climatologist Paul Knight said there is really no way to predict this far in advance if there will be more snowfall than average this winter.

"For those who love snow, I hope it's true," Knight said. "But I don't think there's any way we can say with integrity that we know that."

Local business owners who rely on snowfall to make money mostly scoffed at the predictions, citing inaccurate forecasts in years past.

"I've learned not to listen to [snowfall predictions]," said Tussey Mountain assistant general manager Tom Matalavage. "We were supposed to have a snowier-than-average season last year, and that was as far off the mark as you could possibly get."

A good snowfall would help business in many ways, especially in the costly process of making snow, he said.

"There's nothing like having natural snow on the ground," Matalavage said. "Last year we made snow and it melted, made more snow and it melted -- we made a lot of snow last winter, but we always lost it."

Not having to keep remaking snow saves money for the ski area, and it's better for customers, he said. Last year was tough because warm temperatures forced the mountain to constantly play catch-up to maintain a base of snow, he added.

"The benefit of natural snowfall for us is that people see snow in their backyards, and when people see the snow, it makes them think about skiing and snowtubing," Matalavage said.

But the ski area isn't the only business that would like to see increased snowfall, Matalavage added. The businesses that sell snow tires and

snow blowers still have the same inventory when spring comes around because you don't need it in a mild winter, he said.

"I'll believe it if I wake up in the morning and it's what they said," Mountaintop True Value Store manager Bob Bell said in reference to weather reports speculating that this season will see an above-average snowfall.

Last year, Mountaintop True Value did not sell nearly as many shovels and snowblowers as they normally do because of the low snowfall, Bell said. It takes about a foot of snowfall, or something that's too heavy to shovel, before people start buying snowblowers, he added.

Ski and snowboard enthusiasts are also hoping the season's heavy snowfall predictions will prove accurate.

With a heavier snowfall, the quality of the snow is improved, it lasts longer and it's easier to ride and fall on, Snowboarding Club President Kyle Barnoff said.

"We'll get to ride longer in the year and have a later season," he added.

However, Barnoff said he also wasn't convinced that the weather reports are correct.

"It's hard to believe it [predicted heavy snowfall] since we've had such a dry fall," Barnoff said. "It's been a long time since PA has had a big winter with lots of snowfall."

Penn State Ski Team President Andrew Serfass said increased snowfall would give the slopes a thick base that would maintain quality after multiple runs.

"It's always more fun to ski when there is fresh powder," he said. "And Mother Nature owes us a good season after last year."


 



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