The question of why Iraq is so "messy" is one with many speculations and no concrete answers, said a former U.S. State Department official last night.

Wayne White, a Penn State alumnus and current adviser to the Iraq Study Group --a bipartisan group assessing the situation -- spoke to a crowd of more than 120 people at the Kern Building. He addressed the question: "Why is Iraq such a mess?"

White's discussion explored the problems in Iraq, the most serious problem being the split between the Sunni Arab Iraqis, who formerly ruled the state under Saddam Hussein, and the Shiite Arab and Kurdish Iraqis.

"Why is Iraq so tough? Because Iraqis are tough as nails," White said. "Look at the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. There was incredible endurance and heroism in Iraqis."

White said he warned of the problem of Iraqi insurgency at the beginning of the war.

"A term we use is POI's- pissed-off Iraqis. It's an official government term I created that deals with the roots of insurgency," White said. "The problem is that insurgent casualties are continually being replaced by POI's."

White refuted the possibility of Iraq falling under control of Islamic international terrorists if the United States pulls out. "The worst case scenario is civil war," White said. "Most people opposing the coalition [with the United States] are Iraqis, not Islamic international terrorists."

White said there are no optimal choices for a solution in Iraq. Victory is not a feasible option anymore, he said. "Staying the course will not stabilize the situation, let alone win it," White said. "We would need 100,000 troops to make a difference now, even just to have a 50-50 chance. We would be playing with the lives of our men and women out there, and that's a hefty lottery ticket."

White suggested a slow withdrawal from Iraq. He said leaving would prompt a full-scale civil war.

"There are potential humanitarian issues with leaving Iraq," White said. "I think we owe it to those [Iraqis] who helped us out to pull them and their families out with us and not leave them to their fate."