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[ Thursday, Sept. 7, 2006 ]

Renovate or Rebuild?
Replacing 13 starters, Penn State will have to use all the tools in its workshop to stay on top.

It happens every year. Upperclassmen leave a successful college football program, taking with them a significant chunk of the team's production and leadership from the previous season. Some programs, like No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Texas, are able to replace what has been lost without missing a beat.

Talented upperclassmen are backed up by talent-rich underclassmen waiting their turn to step into the spotlight. These are the programs in a perpetual state of renovation, of improvement, replenishing what has been lost with a similar product in its place. Every coach believes his team can make progress, renovating and improving each position week-by-week.
Surveying the season

Staub:
The word in the Penn State locker room is that the Nittany Lions are thinking Big Ten Championship. After last season’s impressive 11-1 campaign, confidence should be expected. But at this level, and with questions surrounding the offensive line and the defense? Sure, why not? Tony Hunt thinks the team deserves more respect than in early predictions, and everyone saw what the Lions did with a chip on their collective shoulder last year. Penn State could sneak up on Michigan and Ohio State again.
Prediction: 11-1 (7-1 Big Ten)
BCS Bowl

Moyer:
Sure, this is Anthony Morelli’s first year starting — but Michael Robinson didn’t do too shabby in his debut last season as the signal caller. And, sure, the secondary’s a bit inexperienced — but two interceptions against Akron shouldn’t hurt confidence either. The main issue this year isn’t the talent-factor, it’s experience. And that may very well lose out to the likes of Notre Dame and Ohio State, especially in the first four weeks, but the Nittany Lions still remain a top 25 team.
Prediction: 10-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
BCS Bowl

Cooper:
The Lions have the talent, but lack the big-game experience to repeat as Big Ten champs. Tough early-season bouts at Notre Dame and Ohio State and a night game at Beaver Stadium with Michigan might very well leave Penn State 4-3 by the middle of October. Even if the Lions can win one of those games, November trips to Wisconsin are never easy. The rigorous early season schedule will build character and that big-game experience, though, and the Lions will turn out all the better for it — next year.
Prediction: 9-3 (6-2 Big Ten)
Outback Bowl

Other programs lie crippled by the loss of impact players, unable to find the right replacement -- the right chemistry to compensate for the recently departed. These are the teams that must rebuild after a good year, the teams that have to be willing to alternate years between title contention and mediocrity.

Penn State has traditionally been able to avoid complete rebuilding periods, but after a few seasons of mediocrity the question remains: With the loss of 13 senior starters from an 11-1, Big Ten and Orange Bowl-winning 2005 campaign, will Penn State renovate or rebuild?

Quarterback

Rebuild: "Different" is the key word in this department. The drop off from Michael Robinson to Anthony Morelli should be minimal, but the Lions will have to put their drives together differently than a year ago. A quick striking, downfield-oriented offense will replace the more deliberate, possession-geared attack of 2005.

The only problem is this: What if Morelli gets hurt? Whereas last year the strong-armed prodigy would have been a capable replacement, there is no experience and no proven backup behind Morelli in 2006.

Offensive Line

Rebuild: All-America tackle Levi Brown is the only returning starter. And while defensive transplant A.Q. Shipley is solid at center, the rest of the line has some issues. John Shaw is penciled in at the other tackle spot, and Gerald Cadogan and Robert Price fill the guard spots, but all three started the year splitting time with other players. Against Akron, the unit allowed no sacks but struggled to open holes for the running game. Joe Paterno will need to shore up his starting line quickly, or Tony Hunt will have nowhere to run.

Running Backs

Renovate: The not-too-flashy but always dependable Tony Hunt returns in the backfield for the Nittany Lions, and a 1,200+ yard season isn't unrealistic. Backup Austin Scott has been hampered by injuries to start the season, but the Lions are deep with Rodney Kinlaw relieving Hunt for now. Questions remain at fullback, though. Last year's starter, BranDon Snow, has been suspended for unknown reasons. Junior Matt Hahn will take his place in the lineup.

Secondary

Rebuild: In just one short offseason, cornerback Justin King went from wide-eyed rookie to one of the most experienced players in the secondary. No starters returned from last year, and safeties Donnie Johnson and Nolan McCready will be gone after this season.

Still, one shouldn't overlook how well the secondary performed against Akron by grabbing two interceptions and limiting big plays. But it's a work in progress. The season's early, and missed checks are expected.

The potential's there with King, Tony Davis, and new starting hero Anthony Scirrotto, but until the secondary gets more experience under its belt, "renovations" will just have to wait.
PHOTO: Andew Lala
PHOTO: Andew Lala
Kevin Kelly, 23, kicks the ball during Saturday afternoon’s game.


Special Teams

Renovate:Both punter Jeremy Kapinos and kicker Kevin Kelly return, which is a good thing in this case. Derrick Williams is a force to be reckoned with in the return game, and emerging speedster A.J. Wallace looks set to wreak havoc any time he can get on the field.

Ethan Kilmer is gone, but Knowledge Timmons made his presence felt last week. Linebacker/long-snapper Joe Cianciolo also recovered a fumbled punt.

Linebackers

Renovate: Another year of experience doesn't hurt for a group that was one of the best in the country to begin with. Look for Dan Connor to receive just as much attention by the end of this year as 2005 Butkus and Bednarik Award winner Paul Posluszny. Add Sean Lee to the mix as Tim Shaw sees increased time on the line, and fans will see that all is certainly not lost after Posluszny and Shaw matriculate after Thon.

Wide Receivers

Renovate: Penn State returns arguably its best receiving corps. Ever. There's no weak spot here when the top three wideouts on the depth chart could easily be the go-to guy for many other teams in the nation -- and that's not counting other solid players like Terrell Golden and up-and-comer Chris Bell.

Derrick Williams has the speed, Deon Butler has the hands, and Jordan Norwood has the route-running ability. Together, they make up one of the best groups of receivers in the country. And the scary part? Everyone but Golden is a sophomore or younger.

Defensive Line

Renovate: Defensive tackle Jay Alford returns to anchor the line. And, in a new-look defense, former linebacker Tim Shaw has been moved to a stand-up lineman in the 3-4 scheme. To shore up the middle, Ed Johnson has returned from a season-long suspension at defensive tackle. The D-line has huge holes to fill with Tamba Hali, Matt Rice and Scott Paxson gone, and if Jim Shaw can't stay healthy at end, it may have problems.

PHOTO: Daniel Freel
PHOTO: Daniel Freel
Donnie Johnson, 6, and Anthony Scirrotto, 7, both tackle Akron wide receiver David Harvey in their first start for Penn State this season. It was the tandem’s first opportunity in getting the starting nod together.


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