During the Tri-City series last week, a Houston Astros scout pointed out that a lot of superstars have gone through the New York-Penn League, especially with the New York Mets organization (see: Wright, David and Kasmir, Scott).
So the question becomes, "How many players from a NY-Penn League team does an organization expect to make it to the big leagues?"
His answer: At least four.
That made me think, "What four Spikes would make it?"
After long hours and more caffeine than any human should consume, a list of the four prospects most likely to see time in the big leagues was written. And for good measure, some honorable mentions are listed based on the fact that they are still on the fence. So without further ado:
Adam Ottavino
Projection: No. 2 or No. 3 starter.
Everything about him screams big-league pitcher. He has the stuff -- two plus pitches and a third pitch he can throw for strikes -- and he has the mental toughness needed to succeed at the highest level (see hometown: Brooklyn, N.Y.).
Through his first four starts, it was like he was man among boys, but since then he's hit a "reality wall." In his last two starts he's allowed 18 hits and 10 runs, which is a good thing for a blue chip prospect because it's better he fails now than fail for the first time at the big league level (see: Floyd, Gavin). So it gives him the chance to learn how to deal with adversity.
He has already made that first step as the right hander was assigned to the Swing of the Quad Cities during the recent road trip.
Mark Hamilton
Projection: Starting first baseman on a bad team, bench player on a contending team.
Hamilton is the perfect example of the phrase "trade bait" because I can guarantee with 100 percent certainty that Hamilton will not be a St. Louis Cardinal. Hamiltion has shown the ability to hit to all fields with power, but he doesn't have that booming power you see out of top flight power hitting first basemen (see: Pujols, Albert or Howard, Ryan).
There are two things he needs to work on: Defense and how he reads the strike zone. It's not that he's horrible defensively, but he's no Derrick Lee either. If there's one thing that allows you to stay in the league for a long time, it's solid defense (see: Vizquel, Omar). Reading the zone is something that comes with time, but sometimes it never shows up.
Jose Salazar
Projection: Top reserve and upper echelon pinch-hitter.
Salazar might be the surprise on this list. He was an undrafted free agent out of Texas A&M where he was named All-Big 12 during his senior season. So, if anyone thought he would play like he has, raise your hand.
Thought so.
That was before Salazar stepped in the batter's box. He plays the game with a determination that is a breath of fresh air for those who've watched the game lately. He is what old-school baseball fans would call a "dirt ball player," which means he'll do anything it takes to succeed at baseball (see: Utley, Chase). So far he is well on his way to getting to the big dance.
Jim Rapoport
Projection: Bottom of the lineup center fielder or a pinch running specialist.
Speed kills. In the major leagues -- where speed is as rare as a dry fraternity -- you can fly through the minors if you show any signs of being a base stealer (see: Pierre, Juan).
But Rapoport has on leg up on the one-tool guys, he plays a pretty good centerfield. A perfect example of a guy that Rapoport could be like is Brian Anderson of the Chicago White Sox. Anderson struggled at the plate but it was his phenomenal defense that kept him in the Sox line up.
Honorable Mentions
P.J. Walters
Projection: Closer or set-up man.
That projection hinges greatly on whether he's given a chance to succeed in that role. Walters' stuff is reminiscent of Eric Gagne -- minus the plus fastball. Walters throws four pitches for strikes but has a fastball that wouldn't scare a high school hitter.
His lack of overpowering stuff might be the unique aspect that gives him an edge over his competitors. But more importantly he has the confidence to throw any pitch in any situation -- a quality that many of his contemporaries lack.
Nathan Southard
Projection: Fourth outfielder.
Southard came from the same collegiate program as Hamilton but always played in the slugger's shadow. The right-handed hitting outfielder once again finds himself in the same situation with the Spikes. But Southard has shown signs of stepping out from behind that shadow by hitting for more than .300 this season and lacing 10 doubles.
But there's one very big problem facing Southard as he tries to climb the professional baseball ladder: his inability to play good defense in the outfield. Now whatever team employs Southard when he reaches the majors might be able to hide him in left (see: Burrell, Pat). But the old saying in baseball goes, "If you can hit, we can find a spot for you."
