Although the apocalypse may not be near, some say that time is ticking for climate change. Others leave global warming on the back burner and ride on what others consider a natural climate cycle.
One thing is for sure -- November was warmer this year than last year, which is a pattern that has affected the globe for decades. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency, global surface temperature has increased to between 0.6 to 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1890 to 1996 -- and the past 14 years have been the warmest ever. According to the agency, during the last century, the average temperature in Pennsylvania has increased the most in Harrisburg, at 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
"When you're dealing with a climate that has been around for billions of years, it's still hard to make conclusions from 100 years of data," Penn State meteorologist and lecturer William Syrett said. "What is scary, however, ... is that the high temperatures do correlate with the high levels of carbon dioxide."
Human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, contributes to the buildup of carbon dioxide, Syrett said.
William Easterling, director of the Penn State Institute of the Environment, is part of a research team analyzing the effects of climate change on agriculture. He said that despite the earth's climate variation time scales, further research seems to be leaning more toward global warming as a cause.
Still, it is difficult to sort out what natural variation is even with more evidence supporting global warming as a cause, he said.
The global warming debate seems to be even more rigorous after this year's hurricane season. Despite scientific uncertainty of whether global warming is to blame, about 6,000 people gathered outside the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Montreal this week, urging the U. S. government to take action against global warming.
"It is a very political topic," Syrett said. "Our current administration rightfully feels that our economy will be at risk if we cut down on our oil resources. Right or wrong, that's where they stand."
Syrett said this year's hurricane season would most likely not affect the administration's views.
"It's human nature to not act until there is an emergency," he said. People who do not want policies to change will use the uncertainty of global warming in their defense, he said.
Easterling said some meteorologists view the temperature increase the same way as the hurricane issue.
"Meteorologists would say that it was due to a large number of atmospheric conditions," he said. "They may be right if you look at this year, but eventually this year's storms may be looked as part of a long-term trend."
If global warming does affect tropical storms, then in the future they will be more powerful, but not necessarily more frequent, Easterling said.
More concrete evidence shows that "minimum temperatures have been on the rise in the United States," Easterling said. In other words, night temperatures aren't as low as they used to be, contributing to the generally warmer winters.
This means the annual growing seasons are longer. However, if temperatures increase more than 3 to 5 degrees, it could be detrimental for Pennsylvania crops like corn and soybean, Easterling said.
Nonetheless, Easterling said it is more difficult to see the consequences of global warming on systems that are human-managed. Studies conducted on smaller ecosystems, such as bird and insect migration, have exposed patterns as a possible result of climate change.
"There are a lot of mysteries and questions related to climate change," Penn State meteorologist Geoffrey Cornish said. "For any given season, however, climate change should not be used as a tool for forecasting any particular season's departure from temperature or precipitation."
Instead, meteorologists use wind currents, like El Niño and La Niña, to explain deviations as more accurate indicators, he said.
As for the next couple of weeks, Cornish said that a dip in the jet stream would maintain this week's cold temperatures.
"It will remain near or below normal for the next two to three weeks," he said. "We won't have a mild spell between now and Christmas."



