Starting off the season with an 0-4-1 record, the Penn State men's soccer team found itself behind the eight ball. But in having brought its record back to .500 since then, the team shook the ball again and got a very different forecast.
The Nittany Lions (6-6-2, 4-0 Big Ten) have been playing for at least a berth in the NCAA tournament all year long. Thanks to the multiple avenues available to earn a bid, they may go from "My Sources Say No" to "Signs Point to Yes."
The Big Ten tournament champion, regardless of record, earns a bid. So even if they continued to have poor results, the Lions still might have gotten in. It's the surefire way for Penn State to play in late November when the national tournament begins.
But it's when the NCAA Division I soccer committee sits down to fill out the at-large bids that the eight ball window gets bubbly and unclear.
Of the 48 teams in the tournament, 25 receive at-large bids. On the afternoon of Sunday, Nov. 13, the 10-member committee will sit down to fill out the bracket.
After filling in spots for the conference champions, the committee fills in spots on a unanimous in/unanimous out basis. What they have left are a bunch of teams, a few spots and a ton of data.
"There's always about five teams that you're hashing over," Terry Lynn Gawlik, chair of the NCAA Division I men's soccer committee, said. "It's really fun, cause you get in there and you talk about, 'Well, on this day, and this team.' Luckily, we have a computer program. We can have it figure out all these things for us."
The committee's decision is based largely on reports from multiple regional advisory committees, which provide the committee members with a set of rankings based on won-loss and head-to-head records, as well as strength of schedule.
The Lions are 6-6-2, but have played five games against teams ranked in the top 20 at the time. Though no polls are used in the selections, it's still an indication of the caliber of teams they've played.
That would bode well for the Lions. On the other hand, going 2-3 in those games could be detrimental. On yet another hand, the Lions could wrap up the season with an 11-6-2 record and be in significantly better shape. It seems the only certainty is the complicated process.
"I couldn't tell you [their chances]," Gawlik said. "You can't say anything right now, really."
It's not unheard of for teams with a close-to-.500 record to earn an at-large bid. Last year, North Carolina was 10-8-2 in the regular season but made a tournament appearance thanks to a tough schedule.
But the Lions could take themselves out of the close-to-.500, on-the-bubble discussion if they ran the table. It would simultaneously put themselves in better position for a Big Ten tournament win and an at-large bid.
"Going undefeated in the Big Ten is still a long way [away], but it does give us some good wins," Penn State men's soccer coach Barry Gorman said. "It does give us the opportunity to build on our final record that's going to be respectable."
Right now, that record says the Lions lose as much as they win, but their undefeated conference record puts them a step ahead of their Big Ten opponents. If Penn State wins one of its two remaining conference matches, it can win the Big Ten regular season and earn a first-round bye in the Big Ten tournament.
That could end up being quite a boon for the Lions, as that first day off would allow the team to see its opponents in action and provide an extra travel day.
Considering that Penn State has the furthest to travel to the Northwestern-hosted tournament, it could be a major advantage towards its chances of winning it.
"The big bonus of winning the regular season is that day off Thursday," Gorman said. "With three games on [the first day], someone's going to have to play awfully early."
