I think I have done it. I found the formula that determines success in Big Ten men's basketball.
It is based on two important statistics -- returning minutes played and three-point field goals made.
The three cellar dwellers of the conference (Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota) currently have players that played 40 percent or less of the team's minutes played from the year before. The Nittany Lions' current players account for just five of the 172 three-pointers made last season, a conference low, and the Buckeyes are not far behind at 13 out of 156 for a whopping eight percent. Minnesota's numbers are a little skewed because Michael Bauer, the team's second most prolific three-point shooter of all-time, accounts for most of its returning 103 made three-pointers.
On the other side of the wins and losses column there are Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin. All three teams current players boast a 60 percent or higher rate in minutes and three-point field goals made from last season. Then there is Purdue and Michigan, the two other teams that have impressive returning numbers, and not coincidentally they are the other two Big Ten teams being considered for the NCAA tournament.
It is apparent that the more minutes a team returns, the more experience it has which is crucial to success. But, the three-point numbers are the more surprising ones especially in a conference that has been known for big-bangers like Chris Webber, Brian Cook, Robert "Tractor" Traylor and Kevin McHale. The three-point shot has become not only the most important shot in the Big Ten, but also the most important shot in college basketball. The Big Ten's premier players now are guards like Bracey Wright, Devin Harris, Dee Brown, Deron Williams, Chris Hill and Pierre Pierce.
Hawkeyes set to soar
It gave a team like the 2000-2001 version of Penn State a chance against teams like North Carolina and Michigan State. It also gives a team like the 2003-2004 version of Iowa a chance to make some noise in the Big Ten tournament and sneak into the NCAA tournament. The Hawkeyes have yet to be mentioned in the same sentence as the NCAA tournament, but are currently fourth in the conference with a 7-5 mark. With their remaining schedule they should finish 9-7 or 10-6 in conference, with either 16 or 17 total wins before the Big Ten tournament. They have four legit threats from behind the arc with Brody Boyd, Jeff Horner, Glen Worley and Pierre Pierce all stroking the trifecta with proficiency.
Iowa rides the trey to the Big Ten tournament finals and into the NCAAs.
Upset of the Week
My column didn't run last week, and I'm sure no one missed it. This week I comeback with two Saturday upsets as Maryland will take down No. 11 Wake Forest and keep its fleeting NCAA tournament hopes alive. Charlotte, not UNC-Charlotte as they were previously known, will continue to climb to the top of Conference-USA knocking off No. 15 Cincinnati. Two weeks ago: I went 2-0 as Pitt took care of UConn and Wake Forest and Chris Paul held off Cincy by six points. My record for the season stands at 6-4 straight-up and even better against some numbers from a city in Nevada.
