This past summer, shortly before top high school quarterback prospect Chad Henne made his college choice, in an attempt to establish myself as a rising recruiting guru going on information my sources close to the Penn State football program told me, I made a "guarantee" that he would commit to the Nittany Lions.

To make my prediction official, I pompously made a bet with some of the other recruiting junkies at The Daily Collegian that Henne would wear Blue and White come the fall of 2004.

On the line was an all-expenses-paid trip to one of State College's higher-end bars on my dime.

After my colleagues took advantage of the top-shelf liquor and $65 later, I learned my lesson.

Thanks, Chad, I'll send you the receipt.

It's a lesson that many should heed, but not many people seem to comprehend when it comes to following college football recruiting.

The overriding fact is this: these are 17-year-old kids who are making arguably the biggest decision of their lives.

For anyone to claim to accurately know the thought processes of these young athletes and ultimately predict with "guaranteed" certainty where they will finally commit to play football is asinine.

There's more to making a decision than a program's prestige or location. Those factors are important, but they're not the entire story.

The final decision is based on a compilation of countless variables that no equation could ever properly predict, especially the recruiting junkie net nerds who live vicariously through the lives of these high school football players.

Take, for example, a highly touted high school football player who shall remain nameless with whom I spoke before his season started in the fall.

I asked him what he was looking for in a college football program before he made his decision.

He replied with generic answers such as wanting to start early in his career and wanting to get a good education.

Then he threw in a wild card.

"Actually, it will be a big plus if the school has a Wal-Mart near it," the prospect said.

I thought he was joking, but he reassured me that, indeed, he was weighing the option as committing to a school that had a Wal-Mart in its general vicinity. Sounds crazy, but it's true.

Remember, these are 17-year-old kids.

A corollary to this is an issue that even more people can't comprehend.

That is, Penn State is not entitled to receive commitments from any of the nation's top talent. For that matter, the Lions aren't entitled to receive commitments from the nation's bottom talent.

It's actually quite the opposite.

Assuming a prospect is talented enough, he is the one who is entitled to choose the program he likes the most.

Furthermore, he shouldn't be judged for making a decision.

Now, with National Letter of Intent Day a week away, and as an aspiring recruiting guru, I will leave you with a guru-esque prediction.

By "guru-esque," I mean vague, non-specific and general statements that will likely hold true in the end given that they are vague, non-specific and general.

Come next Tuesday, there will be big news surrounding highly coveted Penn Hills quarterback Anthony Morelli who has wavered on his verbal commitment to intrastate rival Pittsburgh.

Multiple sources indicated to me that the Penn State coaching staff is confident in its ability to lure Morelli away from the Panthers. Then again, the staff said the same thing about getting Henne to commit this summer.

Either way, Morelli will make the best decision for him, not Penn State fans.Whether he ends up a Nittany Lion or a Panther, fans will have to accept that fact.