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NEWS
[ Thursday, March 27, 2003 ]

Fear of attack, war makes economy fluctuate

Collegian Staff Writer

A week after the war in Iraq started the fluctuating stock market seems to be reflecting uncertainties about the length of the war.

While past wars have been credited with economic stimulation, this war is creating more hesitation for investors because it is bringing with it warnings of possible terrorist attacks, Paul Graf, economics lecturer, said.

"Typically, any market doesn't like uncertainty," Graf said.

In the days immediately following the announcement of the war, the stock market increased because war was no longer an uncertainty, Graf said. Recently, however, leaders have been saying the war could take longer than expected, causing decreases in the market, he said.

The stock market can be seen as an overall economic indicator, he added.

Multinational businesses are concerned with how workers and consumers in foreign countries will react, which can explain some of the dips in the stock market, Graf said.

"It all comes back to uncertainty -- will [foreign consumers] hold American businesses accountable?" he said.

Graf added, however, that the end of the war will not necessarily mean economic stability because it does not take away public uncertainty about terrorist attacks.

There were also problems contributing to economic instability before the start of the war, and these will not be erased simply because of the war ending, he said.

Though the national economy has been fluctuating in the last week, this has little to no effect on the local economy and on the consumer, he said.

The only real effect is psychological -- people attribute a declining stock market to a poor economy, which could cause consumers to spend less money, Graf added.

Despite this, State College business owners said they have not seen any negative change in business in the last week.

"We haven't seen any difference [in business] because of the war or the war coverage," said Cathy Horner, owner of Tadpole Crossing, 101 E. Beaver Ave.

The past week has actually marked an increase in business downtown because it was the first solid week of warm weather, she said.

Horner said she is not concerned about business decreasing in coming weeks.

Customers have not given any indication that the war will affect their spending habits, she said.

"I guess only time will tell," Horner added.

Katie Dawes, owner of Kitchen Kaboodle, 104 W. Beaver Ave., also said her business has not been affected by the war's beginning but has increased due to the warming weather.

"Business has been sporadic because of the weather -- I don't see any dramatic change," Dawes said.

 



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