Back in 1999, William Safire wrote an essay called "Bagels vs. Doughnuts," in which he declares victory for the bagel as America's favorite baked good. But he also warns: "In the bagel's adaptive triumph lies the poppyseed of its self-destruction. For the bagel has moved toward the center, and that center has no distinctive hole; its crust has lost its hard-boiled nature. The low point was reached with the introduction of the blueberry bagel -- sweet, soft, inky-colored and hard to tell from a stale doughnut. Meanwhile, the guiltily gulped doughnut has held fast to its liberal essence. Despised by dieters, it remains deliciously feminine, sinfully sweet and outrageously hedonistic."

Three years later, it seems Mr. Safire's predicted poppyseed has failed to germinate: Bagels are as popular as ever. So what's happening?

1. The reality that Americans are not immune to the ravages of heart disease has finally sunk in. Fearing premature death, big-fat-doughnut lovers are reaching for bagels. Unfortunately, they're not losing the extra pounds because research shows it's not the intake of excessive sugar that leads to obesity, but the intake of excessive carbohydrates in general. According to this Atkins idea, bagels may be just as bad as doughnuts.

2. The bagel is giving up on blueberries and raisins in favor of more traditional seasonings, such as garlic, as more Americans desire bad breath to keep unwanted strangers at bay.

3. While bagels are returning to their folksy roots, doughnuts are embracing sugar alternatives in hopes of luring dieters back from bagel-land. But health-conscientious dieters are worried by the doughnuts' new packaging that reads: "Warning: This product contains sweeteners known to cause cancer in laboratory rats."

4. Focusing too much attention on converting dieters, lean-mean doughnuts are losing their fair-weather fans to bagels for the same reason that some people just don't drink diet sodas -- they don't taste as good, unless you're addicted.

So the question remains, if you've got a real sweet tooth, what's left today? Some "sucro-holics," while displeased with the doughnuts' new synthetic taste, believe sugar-free doughnuts are the way to go because they're easier to swallow than a bagel.

I, on the other hand, don't pick my pastries like an octogenarian with no teeth left; mushiness is not a quality I value above taste. That's why I'm ready to embrace a new breakfast pastry -- the cinnamon bun. Because there's only one way to throw a vote away in this election, and that's to toss it down the hole.