What separates the 5-3 Penn State football team between being an 8-0 team is gut-wrenching.
Seventeen points, 10 of them coming in overtime losses.
It's enough to make Penn State football coach Joe Paterno wish he could hop in some magical DeLorian, go back in time and find a way to make sure quarterback Zack Mills doesn't throw that ball to Ohio State cornerback Chris Gamble and that special teamer James Millon stays as far away from Michigan's punter as possible.
However, what is can't be changed. The once-great hope that the Lions could turn it all completely around and be a national contender a year after starting 0-4 is gone. But seasons don't end when initial goals become impossible, and with four games remaining, the Lions still have a lot to play for. They are one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 1999 and they would finish 9-3 if they win out.
"I think the stakes are just as high now as they were early on," defensive end Michael Haynes said. "If we lose the next four games, we're right back in the same boat we were in last year."
The Lions are probably going to be favored in each of their last four games. Virginia, at 6-2, is the only team remaining on the schedule with a winning record. Illinois, Indiana and Michigan State are all 3-5.
If the Lions do win out, they still have an outside shot at a New Year's Day bowl game, depending on how the rest of the conference does.
The Lions are currently in sixth place in the Big Ten. They'll move up to fifth if they beat Illinois this week, but to ascend from there, they'll need either Ohio State (9-0, 4-0 Big Ten), Iowa (8-1, 5-0), or Michigan (6-2, 3-1) to finish with at least four conference losses, or Minnesota (7-1, 3-1) to finish with at least three.
The Golden Gophers have each of the first three teams still left on their schedule as well as Wisconsin, so the Lions will likely have a chance to pass them up to fourth place.
The Big Ten's fourth bowl tie-in is with the Alamo Bowl. A bid there would allow the Lions to return to the scene of their last bowl game, a 24-0 victory over Texas A&M in 1999. Getting back there would be huge in helping the Lions who have been to bowl games show the younger guys what there is to work for.
"The first two years I was here we went to bowl games and it was a great experience," said right tackle Matt Schmitt, a fifth-year senior. "Some of these guys haven't experienced that. That alone is a good driver."
There is still a chance they can go to the Outback Bowl if both Ohio State and Iowa finish unbeaten in the conference and one gets selected as a wild-card BCS team. Bowl committees have also been known to select teams that finish lower than their tie-in number for monetary reasons, which suites Penn State well.
One conference loss, and things will get hairy. Northwestern is the only team in the conference that is already mathematically eliminated from bowl eligibility. The Lions are one of five with three conference losses. A lot of things can still happen, and they can fall far down the Big Ten standings. However, if they qualify, the Sun Bowl, the conference's No. 5 tie-in, the Music City or Motor City Bowls, which have the No. 6 and No. 7 choices of Big Ten teams would likely jump on the chance to get the revenue the Lions would bring in.
But if the Lions should lose out, there's only one place they can go for the holidays: home.
