Eliot Walker is a senior majoring in international politics and a Collegian columnist. His e-mail address is ejw152@psu.edu.
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OPINIONS
[ Friday, Sept. 20, 2002 ]

My Opinion
It's time to re-evaluate Bush's 'Axis of Evil'

Done. Collapsed. Irrelevant. The Bush administration may not realize it yet, but the flimsy house of cards it built for dictating international security last January is now all of these things. Iraq is allowing weapons inspectors. North Korea is opening up diplomatically. Iran is no more a threat than "ally" Saudi Arabia. So why is Bush still speaking so loudly, while he carries his big stick?

The answer, unfortunately, is unclear. Despite Iraq's recent written offer "to allow the return of U.N. weapons inspectors to Iraq without conditions," hawks in the White House continue to talk tough. Yesterday, Bush already proposed to Congress a resolution allowing the use of military force against Iraq. Of Iraq's offer, Bush simply stated Saddam Hussein is "not going to fool anybody." One can almost imagine him looking seriously into his mirror and muttering "and I'm all out of bubblegum."

What? The whole point of regime change in Iraq is to eliminate Saddam's ability to employ weapons of mass destruction, and this is just what Bush is getting. Granted, overseeing the weapons inspections will be difficult, but why push war when diplomatic alternatives are available? Peace may not ultimately be possible, but it should at least be taken seriously.

Consider, briefly, the costs of invading Iraq. Michael O'Hanlon, Middle East expert of Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution, estimates that the number of dead Americans -- as in, we or our peers -- should be expected in the thousands.

Are we willing to commit a sacrifice similar to the one on Sept. 11? This is, moreover, aside from the civilian bloodbath that probably will ensue in Iraq. Without sufficient military strength, Saddam will have to resort to guerrilla warfare; imagine the world's televisions illuminated with visions of U.S. guns mowing down Iraqi civilians in the street.

While Saddam must be taken seriously, so must common sense. Given an opportunity to peacefully resolve what could be America's bloodiest military operation since Vietnam, let's take a deep breath. It may well be that military aggression against this Axis member is unwarranted.

Meanwhile, Axis of Evil member North Korea is playing the role of good citizen. Following a meeting with Colin Powell this summer, North Korea has stepped up its so-called "sunshine" diplomacy. In a groundbreaking summit this past week, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The diplomatic openness this inspired went so far as to create an accord in which North Korea will freeze its missile launches indefinitely. In return, Japan will recognize North Korea diplomatically and provide a hefty aid program for its starving population.

The United States needs to get on board. Through dialogue with South Korea and Japan, North Korea appears to be becoming less and less of a "rogue" threat. Capitalist economic reforms are also underway. The sort of bellicose rhetoric the United States typically spews in North Korea's direction has become completely out of touch. Following the aforementioned meeting with Japan, expect U.S. relations with North Korea to become more and more normalized.

And what of Iran? Is the United States prepared to push Iran in the same terms as it is with Iraq? Iran may be the most confusing member of Bush's Axis of Evil. Despite Iran's handing over of 16 al-Qaida terrorists in Saudi Arabia, there doesn't appear to be much question that Iran is harboring many more. But this intelligence comes largely by way of Saudi Arabia, which has an interest in distracting attention away from its own terrorist relations.

This brings up a much larger question: If Saudi Arabia, and our other so-called "allies" are sponsoring terrorism, why are we fixated on Iran? President Mohammed Khatami is far more moderate than the old, infamous Ayatollah Khomeini, and this transition is representative of a larger trend. The people of Iran during the past few years have taken to the streets demanding freedom and democracy, and the United States certainly has an interest in nurturing this sentiment. If the United States can cooperate with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, whose "president" recently re-wrote Pakistan's constitution in his mold, the United States can deal with Iran.

The truth is that the Axis of Evil no longer means anything. Some of this can actually be credited to Bush by his pressuring of Iraq to accept inspectors. But the end is swiftly approaching for responsibly saying that the Axis of Evil is still our primary concern, and one that involves military aggression. Moderates are obligated to check the hawkish impulses of the administration and consider other salient issues.

Where is Osama bin Laden? How do we aid areas like Afghan-istan to discourage further religious extremism? How do we coordinate a global effort with our allies? Let's get to work.

 



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