Best Picture
In a perfect world Moulin Rouge would trample this year's competition, however, in the real world, A Beautiful Mind will prove triumphant. The film garnered more non-technical nominations than any other film this year and there's a reason: The Academy loves this film.
Another problem for Moulin Rouge is the lack of a Best Director nod for Baz Luhrmann. The last time a film won Best Picture and was not nominated for Best Director was 1990's Driving Miss Daisy, and a repeat is unlikely to say the least.
The only real competition comes from the more popular The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. It is not filmgoers who vote, however, so popularity is not a large factor. Much like when Annie Hall beat the immensely popular Star Wars in 1978 for Best Picture and Best Director, A Beautiful Mind will pull through.
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Best Director
Amazingly enough, this is Ron Howard's first nomination for Best Director (1996's Apollo 13 was nominated for Best Picture, but not Best Director), and it's time for a legend to receive his prize.
Eight times out of ten in the last decade the winner of Best Director also won Best Picture. One exception was in 1999 when Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture and lost Best Director to Steven Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan, so Howard is a shoe-in, unless Peter Jackson can somehow pull a Spielberg.
Best Actor
There's no competition for Best Actor this year. Russell Crowe will win his second Oscar in a row for this year's sweeper A Beautiful Mind. Moving portrayals of men struggling with mental anguish is a formula for Oscar gold. Think Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump. Remember Geoffrey Rush in Shine? And then there's Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets. And of course Dustin Hoffman's legendary win for Rain Man in 1989. It's tried and true and thus Crowe need not fear.
Best Actress
This year's Best Actress race is the most competitive one, but I believe Sissy Spacek will beat the competition for In the Bedroom and win her second award for Best Actress. She last won in 1981 for her performance in Coal Miner's Daughter, and she has been nominated six times. This year is her year.
It would be nice to see Halle Berry win for Monster's Ball, but it's doubtful. The film has not garnered that much attention, aside from her performance, but if anyone has a chance to prevail, it's her.
Another long shot is Judi Dench, who is on her fourth nomination in four years and her second for Best Actress in a Leading Role. She gives consistent performances, but consistency doesn't necessarily mean a win, and Iris has not received as much attention as In the Bedroom, which will lose Best Picture, and will therefore be compensated with a Best Actress win for Spacek.
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