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[ Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2002 ]

Professor: Pakistan, India battle for river

Collegian Staff Writer

Factors other than religion must be explored to understand the half-century-long dispute between Pakistan and India over neighboring Kashmir, a territory in Southeast Asia, Penn State professors say.

"The dispute is not based only on religion, as figures show both states have almost equal Muslim populations," said Robert LaPorte, professor of political science. "The dispute has secular overtones and certainly territorial overtones."

While 81.3 percent of India's population is Hindu, the state is also home to 120 million Muslims. In comparison, 139 million people, or 97 percent, of Pakistan's population is of the Islamic faith.

India controls the majority of Kashmir, however the population of the territory is mostly Muslim, LaPorte said.

LaPorte said he believes that a major issue that has fueled the dispute time and time again is the Indus River System.

Pakistan is a state rich in agriculture and heavily dependent on the water the five rivers of the system provide, he said.

"Pakistan is concerned because the origin of the Indus system is located in an area of Kashmir that is controlled by India," LaPorte said. "Pakistan is the home of the largest man-made irrigation system in the world."

Pakistan doesn't want India to divert the system's water for its own use, he added.

The situation is largely territorial, Colin Flint, professor of geography said. Pakistan is in disagreement with the cease-fire line established when the two states first fought over the coveted land, he said.

As in many interstate conflicts, national identity and national pride have played, and will continue to play a crucial role, he said.

"The Kashmir (conflict) is an issue of symbolism. If either were to lose Kashmir to the other, it would be seen as a national slight," Flint said.

India is happy with the status quo provided by the cease-fire line, LaPorte said.

"The Pakistanis don't want a continuation of the status quo in the Kashmir," LaPorte said, adding that native freedom fighters of Kashmir want control of their own political destiny.

LaPorte said he believes that another military conflict will not occur this time around. Things will probably be defused because it's in no one's best interest to go to war, given the current situation, he said.

Although he doesn't believe a military engagement will take place, LaPorte acknowledges that it is a possibility.

"If an all out conflict would occur, I doubt it would be for any significant period of time," LaPorte said.

If a conflict occurred, the concentration of Pakistan's military would shift severely to its eastern border with India, LaPorte said. This could hinder the United States' effort to apprehend straggling al-Qaida and Taliban members, he added.

In the event that a military conflict would occur, the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons has been raised.

"This is the first test of nuclear weapons as a deterrent outside the structure of the Cold War," Flint said.

India's policy is not to use nuclear weapons unless Pakistan would strike first. LaPorte said he believes that Pakistan's current regime is rational and will not resort to the use of nuclear weapons.

"I don't know that there is a solution that will satisfy both governments of India and Pakistan as well as the armed resistance groups of the Kashmir," LaPorte said. "Some problems don't have solutions."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 

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