Those of you hoping for an early end to the military campaign in Afghanistan this holiday season will just have to wait until next year, as it looks in the wake of this past week's developments. Sept. 11 was not just a day as it turns out, it was the beginning of a new era for our armed forces and the people the military are fighting for.

We, to our peril, overestimate the success of the last five weeks of bombings. Americans who fail to grasp how insidious this situation is must now prepare for and support a campaign that will last well into next year, according to officials in Washington. This is not a routine military operation and the Taliban are not sitting ducks. The war on terrorism is, unfortunately, failing in a number of respects, despite the fact that al-Qaida and Taliban facilities have almost entirely been left in ruins.

The first difficulty with this war is the lack of a clearly definable gauge of success (a problem that the Bush administration has yet to publicly solve). Once the Taliban is overthrown, who is going to govern Afghanistan in its place? The Northern Alliance? The Northern Alliance does not have nearly enough strength or support to govern effectively. The alliance, unifying a number of militias opposing the Taliban, is nonetheless only half the strength of the current ruling body.

In truth, the Northern Alliance is little more than a large group of vengeful teenagers led by generals without the resources to sustain a military campaign capable of taking the capital city of Kabul. According to published reports, the Northern Alliance lacks even the resources for basic sustenance. On Monday, the Northern Alliance opposition attacked the Afghan city of Mazar-e-Sharif. This attack reportedly was failing early. If the Taliban fortifies its bases in Mazar-e-Sharif, Washington and our allies can no longer look to the Alliance as a viable option to replace the Taliban.

Second, the United States is very much losing the war of public support within Afghanistan. Another misconception Americans have about this campaign is that the Taliban is a governing body that lacks any support from the governed. Nothing could be further from the truth.

To the contrary, the Taliban seems to be gaining support in their country. Over 1,000 Pakistani dissidents defected to Afghanistan wearing white turbans in support of the Taliban and likely, Osama bin Laden. Washington has repeatedly asked Pakistan to open its boarders to Afghan dissidents, but it seems now that the flow of defection seems to be going the other way.

Which leads to the scariest pitfall of this war on terrorism, which is the possibility of the overthrow of Gen. Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan. Pakistan, as you may know, is a nuclear power. If the Pakistani dissidents successfully overthrow Gen. Musharraf, the Taliban and Osama bin Laden would then have direct access to nuclear warheads.

Just imagine that scenario if you have been active in anti-war activities on campus over the past month and a half. Last week, three nuclear scientists were arrested in Pakistan and questioned about possible links to the al-Qaida.

It's time for those of you who believe there "must be another way" to end this crisis to find that other way while the threat of a nuclear attack endangers our civility. Musharraf seems to be losing his grasp on his country if recent reports have any truth. A number of high-ranking military officials in Pakistan are Taliban sympathizers and would defect if Musharraf used military force to combat the dissidents.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld claims that the Taliban is no longer functioning as a governing body. Certainly he would be a more reliable source than I or anyone else. Certainly though, the Taliban is still very much a capable military force and is thwarting campaigns to have its regime overthrown.

Americans cannot interpret Bush administration disclosures that the bombings have been a success as a message that the campaign in its entirety has been a success and is about to come to a victorious close.

To win the war on terrorism, the United States and our allies must ensure the stability of the government in Pakistan and replace the Taliban in Afghanistan with a government capable of combating a civil war. This will take a great deal of time and resources.