The Northwestern men's basketball team has everything to gain and Penn State has everything to lose in tonight's Big Ten contest.

Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions can't schedule their games as they go.

The Wildcats have an RPI rating of 130, only one win in the Big Ten and know their season is probably over after the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. But Northwestern's lone win is a big one against Iowa, who is without superstar Luke Recker. Northwestern played its best game of the season, Iowa played its worst and the more talented team lost.

Now Penn State, a team riding a three-game winning streak, beating Purdue and Minnesota by 20 points each and a squad being mentioned in every NCAA Tournament field prediction travels to Northwestern.

All of these intangibles lead toward one thing: upset.

Northwestern has a chance tonight to not only put the Lions back on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but to slow a Lions team that is speeding down the momentum highway.

But Penn State isn't going to lose tonight. Their confidence and drive, before you even add in their overall talent, will propel the Lions to a victory.

Penn State junior forward Tyler Smith told the Penn State Sports Radio Network after the Minnesota game that the team feels confident and that they are on their way.

On their way to what you ask? Well, clobbering Purdue by 21 points, going to lowly Northwestern and then hosting Michigan State in what will be a packed Bryce Jordan Center on Saturday night is the "way" the Lions have chosen. And then in the final week of the regular season they will travel to slip-sliding-away Iowa and finish with Ohio State. The next two weeks add up to a huge momentum boost or pending disaster heading into the Big Ten Tournament. And after the Big Ten Tournament, the real deal starts.

"They're talking about it," Penn State men's basketball coach Jerry Dunn said after the Lions beat Purdue on Saturday. "When they're talking about it that means there is a commitment to do something about the talk."

But before the Lions worry about polls and predictions like RPI, Sagarin, The Associated Press and others, they need to take care of business on the basketball court. No matter what Penn State does, unless they blow three of its final four games, the team will find themselves in the tournament.

To not make the field with an RPI of 22 and a Sagarin rating of 27, along with a win at Kentucky and a win at home against Illinois would be an injustice. What would be more of a travesty, though, is if the Lions start reading the projections and forget about the competition.

Penn State isn't good enough to go into any arena — including their own — and not play up to its potential. The word is buzzing in every Penn State circle about the Lions going to the tournament. Will they be a No. 9 seed in the South or a 10 seed in the Midwest? All the "experts" have Penn State somewhere in the field.

It's now Penn State's job to prove it belongs.