The gold rush

Returning favorites, first-time nominees vie for Oscars

Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.

Today's Academy Awards ceremony is shaping up to be one of the most interesting races in years, complete with comeback stories, photo-finish competitions and, despite the cultural icon known as Titanic, a hint of unpredictability.

Whether film fans are wagering a 10-spot in their office's Oscar pool or betting the farm in Vegas, here's a breakdown of what to expect:

Best Supporting Actor

Traditionally, the supporting actor and actress categories are the most interesting, as they often pit old pros against up-and-coming stars-to-be.

Case in point: Robert Forster and Burt Reynolds.

Both had been slumping either privately (Forster, who hadn't been heard from in years) or publicly (Reynolds, a tabloid fixture and living punch line). And both actors saved their struggling careers last year with revealing performances.

As a somber bail bondsman in Jackie Brown, Forster was the standout in a film loaded with big stars, while Reynolds played it straight as a semi-sleazy filmmaker and patriarchal figure to a clan of porn stars in the epic Boogie Nights.

WILL WIN: The Oscars love a comeback story, and with Reynolds already racking up almost every major critics' award, the Bandit should make out like, well, a bandit Monday night.

However, don't count out the always-popular Williams, who, despite a strong career, has yet to take an Oscar.

SHOULD WIN: Forster was the heart and soul of the mercilessly underrated Jackie Brown, giving a potentially boring character life and anchoring a complex cast of characters.

Best Supporting Actress

What makes a supporting role? Julianne Moore was the lead female actress in Boogie Nights, while Gloria Stuart barely clocked time in Titanic, making one wonder how they both fit in this category.

Again, the old guard reigns supreme. If 87-year-old Stuart, who bookended Titanic, takes home gold, it's likely due to a sentimental Academy, and viewers can safely expect the rest of the evening to be a Titanic-dominated one.

WILL WIN: Conventional wisdom points to Stuart, but Basinger's role was more crucial to L.A. Confidential, a heavily praised favorite that Academy members will want to reward.

SHOULD WIN: As a drug-addled porn queen, Moore -- probably the best actress of her generation -- gave another electrifying performance in a career full of electrifying performances.

Best Actor

With the exception of Matt Damon, this is the ultimate old boys' club, with elders Peter Fonda and Jack Nicholson being the two to beat.

As a quiet beekeeper defending his family, Fonda's subtle performance in Ulee's Gold has been hyped for the award since the film's release last summer.

Newcomer Damon, on par with the old boys with his assured turn as a troubled genius in Good Will Hunting, will likely reap his rewards elsewhere in the evening for the film's screenplay.

Former winners Robert Duvall and Dustin Hoffman, meanwhile, may have to be content by watching one of their peers take home the prize, though some reports note Duvall may have gained momentum as more voters see The Apostle.

WILL WIN: It's a tough call, but Fonda may best Nicholson, if for no other reason than his famous family's legacy.

SHOULD WIN: Hoffman was hysterical in Wag the Dog and Fonda's performance managed to be effective without being showy in Ulee's Gold, but Duvall pulled out all the stops with his turn in The Apostle.

Best Actress

A British-heavy competition, and the hardest by far to call.

Judi Dench (Mrs. Brown) and Helena Bonham Carter (The Wings of the Dove) split many of the critics' awards, while Helen Hunt, as the lone American in the race, may find support with the Academy's primarily U.S. voting body.

WILL WIN: Who knows? Odds-makers seem to be favoring Dench, but there are too many wild cards.

SHOULD WIN: Hunt transcended TV's limitations in As Good As It Gets, and shined among a star-studded cast.

Best Original Screenplay

A mixed bag, one that becomes more heated with the notable snub of James Cameron's Titanic script.

Best Picture nominees are usually a good bet, but As Good As It Gets was too choppy and The Full Monty was too light to be taken seriously.

That leaves room for one of the Academy's favorite genres: the underdog drama. Expect the Oscar to go Hunting.

WILL WIN: Good Will Hunting has laughs, angst and two hot young stars (co-writers Ben Affleck and Damon) behind it.

SHOULD WIN: Boogie Nights was dark, funny and simmering with pop-culture smarts. Too bad it was about the porn industry, giving it no hope of winning over the notoriously conservative Academy.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Two of last year's most acclaimed crime films -- L.A. Confidential and Donnie Brasco -- compete against political satire (Wag the Dog) and art-house drama (The Wings of the Dove and The Sweet Hereafter).

WILL WIN: L.A. Confidential, written by Brian Helgeland and director Curtis Hanson, is the likely winner here, full of sharp dialogue and believable plot twists. Plus, since Hanson will probably lose in the directors' race to Cameron, the Academy will want to award him somehow.

Best Director

Always the indicator of what film will take home Best Picture, this year's director race pits two favored front-runners.

Cameron, who helmed the $200 million-plus epic Titanic through months of bad press before coming to shore with the highest grossing film of all time, and Hanson, who stunned everyone with his stellar, critically lauded L.A. Confidential, have both taken home numerous awards from both their peers and the critics.

Cattaneo's The Full Monty was cute, a trait the Academy overlooks, while the Van Sant-helmed Good Will Hunting is noted more for its cast and script.

Meanwhile, The Sweet Hereafter wasn't even nominated for Best Picture, killing any of Atom Egoyan's hopes.

WILL WIN: Cameron put up with angry studio execs, bad word-of-mouth, a skyrocketing budget and on-set tension in order to make his personal vision of Titanic succeed.

That, plus the film's combination of romance and special effects, virtually guarantees a win for the first-time nominee.

SHOULD WIN: While Cameron's work on Titanic should not be discounted, more stunning is Hanson's L.A. Confidential, which boasts better acting, writing, cinematography and, above all, direction.

Hanson is pretty much a long shot, but it's important to remember that the notoriously ill-tempered Cameron has made quite a few enemies in his day, and some of them may relish the chance to strip him of his award and vote against him.

Best Picture

As with every year, no big trend dominates this year's nominees. And again, the battle lies between the audience's fave (Titanic) and the critics' pick (L.A. Confidential).

Of all the nominees, the scattered, hard-to-believe As Good As It Gets is the one that looks the most awkward.

The Full Monty is the scrappy underdog of the group, a British comedy that came out of nowhere and won over crowds everywhere it played. However, it is a comedy -- a genre that rarely takes home major Oscars.

In any other year, Good Will Hunting, a heartfelt and engaging look at two close friends, would be a sure shot, and still remains a strong competitor. If it weren't for a certain doomed vessel it would be a much tighter race.

That leaves two films, both with devoted followings: Titanic, one of the most popular films of all time, and L.A. Confidential, which landed on almost every critic's top-ten list.

Though both are supremely entertaining and warrant repeated viewings, that's where the similarities end.

Titanic is a spectacle with a somewhat lean storyline, while L.A. Confidential is an involving, complex drama.

WILL WIN: Titanic. No doubt.

SHOULD WIN: L.A. Confidential. No chance.