Player shuffling just one attraction in baseball season

This is my favorite time of year. I recently participated in my second fantasy baseball draft. It's getting warmer. The Final Four is this weekend. My birthday is coming up.

This should be an interesting year. The pitching mound was raised an inch, and that could curb many of the outrageous offensive numbers fans witnessed last season. I'm more of a pitchers' duel fan anyway, so I'm hoping to see a lot less scoring this year.

As always, many players have moved from team to team, and there were some major changes in coaching staffs that should affect the league. So, here are some thoughts, predictions and analyses on the National League. I'll take care of the junior circuit next week.

So who are the teams to beat?

To be honest, until Tuesday I was completely sold that the Dodgers would win the pennant this year. However, the Braves picked up one of the top five players in baseball when they acquired center fielder Kenny Lofton from the Indians for Dave Justice and Marquis Grissom. The former Indian will serve as catalyst for a lineup that includes flat-out studs Chipper Jones, Fred McGriff, Javier Lopez and Ryan Klesko.

The Braves now have one of the most formidable lineups in baseball to go along with the finest starting pitching staff. What this trade does is allow Atlanta manager Bobby Cox to find time for phenom Andruw Jones in right field.

By making the trade, the Braves effectively said they rather would have Lofton and Jones patrolling the outfield grass at brand new Turner Field than Grissom and Justice. I can't argue one bit with that.

I still like the Dodgers and think it is the only team with enough pitching to dethrone the Braves. In Hideo Nomo, Ismael Valdes, Pedro Astacio and Ramon Martinez, the Dodgers have some serious firepower on the mound.

Manager Bill Russell's lineup, which includes perennial MVP candidate Mike Piazza, a revived Brett Butler, Raul Mondesi and Eric Karros should score runs by the truckload. An interesting player to keep an eye on is rookie second baseman Wilton Guerrero.

Guerrerro will have to beat out his highly touted brother Vladmir, the Expos rookie outfielder, for Rookie of the Year honors if he wants to become a member of a group of Dodger rookies of the year that seems to have more members than the national guard.

Aside from the Braves and Dodgers, a couple of teams should have a chance at surprising some people and winning the National League. The Florida Marlins added about $20 million worth of All-Stars and Jim Leyland, baseball's best manager, in order to compete with the Braves. A pitching staff comprised of hard-luck Kevin Brown, Al Leiter and Alex Fernandez should make the Marlins' season interesting.

The Padres and MVP Ken Caminiti also should be in the hunt. Having powerhouse Greg Vaughn for a whole season should add some necessary pop to the lineup and serve as good protection for Caminiti.

The staff, which includes Joey Hamilton and Andy Ashby, will have a tough task competing with the elite teams in the league, though. The Padres do have an advantage by having the league's best closer in Trevor Hoffman. This guy is an absolute stud and will make a run at the Cy Young.

The rest of the National League is full of questionable contenders like the Cardinals, Astros, Rockies and Expos. The league also has its dogs in the Pirates, Phillies and Reds.

So how do I think it will all turn out?

I'll go with Barry Bonds as MVP. He is the best player in baseball, and his team should finish respectably enough to warrant his getting the award. As for Rookie of the Year, I like everything I hear about the Expos Guerrero, plus he's guaranteed a starting job for the entire year, unlike his brother and Andruw Jones.

The Cy Young is really a tough call. I think Hoffman, Nomo and Valdes will be there, but I'm going to stick with old, reliable Greg Maddux. Maddux cannot possibly have the same poor run support he received from his team last year again. Plus, he is going to have to prove he is worth the $45 million, four-year contract he will be demanding as a free agent in the off-season.

As for the NL champion, I'm sticking with the boys in blue. I think the Dodgers will win the pennant (and the World Series, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here). I don't know whether it's just a hunch, or if I don't want to be like everyone else and say the Braves, but I like the team in Los Angeles.

I think this is a pivotal year in the careers of young pitchers Nomo, Valdes and Astacio. They are all about to enter their primes, and I think they will answer the bell. Pitching is everything, and I also like the Dodgers' bullpen a little better than the Braves.

But remember, I'm the guy who finished seventh in my rookie fantasy baseball season last year. However, I'm predicting a big comeback for the Davey Family organization this year.