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[ Monday, Jan. 9, 1995 ]

Experts say Chechen secession might trigger similar disputes

Collegian Staff Writer

The increasingly violent dispute in the breakaway Russian republic of Chechnya is the latest in a long chain of civil disputes leaving many governments contemplating the fine line between intervening and staying out of another nation's internal affairs.

Conflicts in Rwanda and Bosnia have taken a back seat to the Russian assault on Chechyna as President Boris Yeltsin has come under fire for his inability to control the military. Russian soldiers entered Chechnya Dec. 11 in an attempt to crush its quest for independence but have been unable to defeat resilient Chechen rebels.

Many analysts believe the resolution of the Chechen situation could have significant effects for Russia and other nations.

"I see it as a very serious situation for Russia internally and the world as a whole," said Simon Duke, assistant professor of political science. "I think Chechnya is a very important test case."

If the Chechens are successful in seceding from Russia, Duke said many other republics could try to do the same thing.

Regardless of the resolution of the conflict, the Russian people are aware that they are being lied to and could force Yeltsin to resign, he said.

Russian citizens and several European governments have registered their disagreement with the military's actions so far, citing the constant bombings of civilian targets in the Chechen capital of Grozny.

The Russian government, on the other hand, has labeled the situation as an internal dispute, Duke said, and international law forbids other nations from intervening in domestic matters.

"Chechnya is commonly considered to be in Russia's near abroad," Duke said. The Russian government sees the republic as essential for its security, he said.

Still, the question remains as to whether the Russian government has taken appropriate actions.

Zachary Irwin, associate professor of political science at Penn State Erie, said there is no definitive way to look at the correctness of Yeltsin's actions.

One side of the issue is that Chechnya is doomed as far as independence is concerned, Irwin said. On the other side, there is no evidence that Russian forces will prevail, he said.

Regardless of which side prevails, Irwin said he believes that Russia should work to prevent republics from trying to break away.

"If Chechnya goes then that may be an invitation for other states to break away," he said. "It would be much better for them to stay as one whole."

The abuse of human rights has also raised considerable concern as the Clinton administration has supported Yeltsin's attempts to put down the Chechen rebellion but has spoken out against the harm done to civilians.

"My personal preference is for the United States to speak out vigorously (for human rights)," Irwin said. Criticism is more useful than support for Yeltsin, he said.

At this point many people think the United States should go no further than verbal action.

Ingmar Yao (graduate-industrial engineering) said the Russians should be left to deal with the situation.

"I think we should stay out of it," he said. "It's their own business."



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