Oh Oscar, thou art so fickle. In recent years, you have bestowed honors on Scent of a Woman, Ghost and even Marisa Tomei. And as the curtain goes up tonight, the nation will hold its collective breath in anticipation of your judgment.

Will you hit the mark or stray? We're not sure, but we'd like to offer our humble predictions.

Jim sez: Hollywood had a good year in 1994 -- a year so full of memorable works that ole' Oscar couldn't go wrong. OK, so they did nominate Sleepless in Seattle for Best Original Screenplay but nobody's perfect. Otherwise, Oscar seemed to zero in on those deserving recognition rather than on big names in blockbuster movies.

How else can one explain the nominations of Laurence Fishburne and Angela Bassett for What's Love Got to Do With It? If '93 was any other year, these two outstanding performances would have probably been forgotten due to Oscar's short attention span and distaste for dark subject matter.

Newcomers were the ones to watch in '93 as Oscar couldn't pass them by in favor of those with some tenure. Leonardo DiCaprio shone brightly as the handicapped brother in What's Eating Gilbert Grape while Anna Paquin, at the age of 11, nearly stole the show from her older peers in The Piano.

So what will happen tonight? Well, as far as acting goes, expect Holly Hunter to take the Best Actress Award for The Piano and Emma Thompson to walk off with Oscar No. 2 for In the Name of the Father, for her supporting work. Tom Hanks (Philadelphia) and Tommy Lee Jones (The Fugitive) will walk off with the male acting awards, although Daniel Day Lewis (In the Name of the Father) and Ralph Fiennes (Schindler's List) are more deserving.

As for everything else, the name Steven Spielberg will be heavily intoned. With Jurassic Park and Schindler's List, Spielberg had a monster of a year, producing his masterpiece with his Holocaust epic that will undoubtedly walk away with the night's big awards -- deservedly so.

John sez: This year's Oscar nominees are all a talented bunch. All the nominees in the major categories (save best song) were worthy. But will the real talent go home empty-handed?

I'm not so sure. Given Oscar's previous track record of favoring commercial successes, it seems likely.

Anthony Hopkin's ought to take home a shiny statuette for his magnificent performance in The Remains of the Day. But the intense restraint and control that Hopkins brought to the role of Stevens will probably go unrecognized by the action-oriented Academy.

And the nod for Best Actor will go to Tom Hank's for his tepid, overwrought performance in Philadelphia.

The competition for Best Actress is also heated this year. All of the nominees were brilliant, but this will be The Year of Emma. The high-profile, 34-year-old Thompson will carry off a prize for her work in The Remains of The Day, depriving the more deserving Holly Hunter.

Unfortunately, Hunter's smashing performance as the mute Ada in The Piano has been outshined by Thompson's overwhelming media appeal.

Injustice will also reign if Ann Paquin and Ralph Fiennes don't walk away with Oscars. John Malkovich (In the Line of Fire) and Emma Thompson (In the Name of the Father) are the most likely threats to this talented duo.

But the biggest upset of all will occur with the Best Picture and Best Director picks. Although Spielberg's Schindler's List deserves both nominations on its artistic merits alone, its political edge will carry it over Jane Campion's lush masterpiece, The Piano. Schindler's List's moral and political "importance" will be what the Academy sees, not Campion's artistic vision.

Sigh . . . What's a critic to do?