Because of a few flukes, all people remember are the flakes.

This winter may have seemed exceptionally harsh -- and so far spring may even seem chilly -- but meteorologists say the weather hasn't been all that unusual.

John Merritt, coordinator of the Penn State Weather Station, said generalizations based on the snowstorm last month, as well as a few flukes, such as a potential rainstorm turning out to be a snowstorm last December, have made this winter seem severe.

Because of the perceived unusual winter, people have tried to pin global reasons on local weather changes.

One of the popular speculations is that the recent eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which spewed fine particles of sulfuric acid 10 to 15 kilometers into the atmosphere, helped cause the weather patterns. This layer may partially reflect sunlight, causing global temperatures to be cooler.

In meterologist Ken Reeves' opinion, that theory has yet to be proven.

"If you really, truly think it's affecting State College, it would have to be a global effect . . . El Nino, greenhouse, everything else that makes up our atmosphere has an effect," said Reeves, a senior meteorologist at Accu-Weather, 619 W. College Ave.

Reeves added, "You can make a theory on what effect Mount Pinatubo has, but you have to realize you're looking at a single site 10,000 miles away."

In reality, the volcano probably did not directly affect State College temperatures.

The average State College temperature in January was four degrees above normal, and February and March were slightly below normal, making the overall winter temperatures average out, according to the statistics on the Penn State Weather Station's climatology board.

State College received 45.5 inches of snow before March this year, on par with the winter average of 45.2 inches. March itself accounted for the rest of the 87.4 total inches of snow, with 65.2 of those inches occurring in a seven-week span.

State College has not received this much snow since the winter of 1986-1987, and the all-time record snowfall of 98.2 inches occurred during the winter of 1978.

The predominant cause of weather is the jet stream -- a flow of air 35,000 feet in the atmosphere caused by a temperature gradient separating colder air from warmer air, Merritt said. When the jet stream is south of State College, the area gets colder air, and when it is north of the area, State College gets warmer air, Merritt said.

Earlier this winter, the jet stream was to the north, causing storms through the Ohio Valley and Canada. After Groundhog Day, the position of the jet stream shifted so that it was just south of State College, resulting in snow.

The weather was harsh but not unheard of.

"In general these types of things happen," Reeves said.

The path of the jet stream is changeable.

"It tends to go through dips. It's a very wavy creature," Merritt said, pointing out that if meterologists could predict reliably the stream's behavior, they would know when storms or cold and warm fronts were coming. But the motion of the jet stream can't really be predicted more than a week to 10 days in advance, which makes seasonal forecasting difficult.