Will it be the beginning? Or is it an end? Millions of people all over the world are asking this question which has no answer. That's because the situation is changing every day, because people are ready to take weapons, because they don't know if they have to wait for a new coup or civil war. The nation is strained at a maximum.
When on Aug. 22, 1991, the coup, organized by high-ranking officials and military, failed, the majority of the Soviet republics took that chance to finally declare their independence from the Soviet Union. People got their freedom to speak, to move around without restrictions, to have any political and economic activity they want, as a man has in a capitalistic society. And after a prolonged "hurraahh" devoted to the victory of capitalism, people woke up in the new reality, where on the first place was put not a human, but ambitions and the struggle for power.
The economic advice given by the Western specialists doesn't work in Russia. Why? Having America as the perfect pattern of the great political, economic and legal system, many Western and Russian economists try to construct an American twin. They don't want to take into account Russian historic and ethnical specifics. Their tactic was to let the prices be free until they stop somewhere and begin to decrease under the circumstances of competition between different enterprises. But in the capitalistic society such competition is between private companies. How can it happen in Russia where the vice president recognizes that 99 percent of all economy belongs to the state? What kind of competition can we talk about here? Before, all economy lived on the donations of the government and now enterprises have to take care of themselves.
Second, the country has disintegrated. The reason is history. Stalin organized the country by the principle that different regions can't manage their production without each other. Simple example: cloth. Uzbekistan has a monopoly on cotton but it can't convert it into fabric. Only Russia has such plants. But Russia has no dye-staff. One of the Baltic states does. A fourth republic has a monopoly on buttons. Another example is batteries. Estonia doesn't supply them to Russia anymore and all electric equipment is selling without them. Suddenly, this whole system broke up. The financial system was damaged. Now, republics are accepting contracts only in hard currency.
Mafia is the third problem of the former Soviet Union. In several years such crime organizations as Koza Nostra, or Italian mafia, will be kittens in comparison with the Russian, Armenian and Chechen crime associations. Uzbekistan and other south republics will become the powerful source of drugs from Asia to Europe. But these associations are also a powerful determinator in the economy. They control banks, shops and production companies. They possess large amounts of money, a big part of which money was gotten by the Communist Party which invested its money in different business activities, including the dark ones.
Russia's main problem is its government. The main economist, Prime Minister Egor Gaidar made many lethal mistakes. But he is still holding his position; or I should say he is held by somebody. Somebody wants him making mistakes, putting ruling government in a very uncomfortable position. Or maybe it is magic which Yeltsin believes in and which gives him a base to trust his prime minister. Vice president Rutzkoi is obviously a boy for beating. Being in charge of the most ruined branch --agriculture -- he isn't tired of fighting with the president and his advisers about the wrong way of reforms. That's why Yeltsin uses every chance to criticize the "main farmer" about his "achievements" in agriculture. Of course, Rutzkoi is incompetent here because he was a military pilot and it's the same thing as making Yeltsin fly a Mig-31.
Another thing about comparing Russia and America: When the U.S. president-elect moves into office he calls his economic advisers and says, "Okay! People selected me as the president of this country, so I have to show them that I'm good in economy. What am I supposed to do?" And they tell him what to improve. This has to be done to decrease inflation, this to cut the budget deficit. It goes this way because the economy is already set and is supported by strict legal order and many social programs. Russia doesn't have an economy. It is broken, ruined and robbed. Vitally important productions are coming to a stop. Every day the country is losing millions of rubles. Prices are not going to stabilize. They change everyday. I went to buy Pepsi Cola and the sign on the bottle read "25" (before it cost 75 kopeeks). I couldn't believe that it cost 25 kopeeks; but then I was shocked that the price was 25 rubles per bottle. Price increase is contrary to the government's plan. They thought that prices would increase five to six times, but they flew up 14-16 times. A dollar in the beginning of the summer was about 135 rubles. In August it increased to 210 rubles and now it's approaching 300 rubles. At the same time, people's salaries increased about 11-12 times. Inflation hurts retired people and moderate families. There is going to be tremendous stratification in society. More often you can see beggars in subways, near hotels and on downtown streets.
What about American help? What about the money of American taxpayers? It is hard to say, but this money is lost. Lost forever. As soon as this money gets to Russia, the government puts it into food purchase. They don't invest it in the food industry or another important branch. To express it simply, they are just buying some bread and ham for people. But all food will be eaten in a certain time and there will be a new request to America for money. They have to invest this money in ham-producing machines and new technologies of bread. And next year we'll have our own ham.
American private businesses are still afraid to invest big sums of money in Russia because the investments are not secured. It is enough to remember the case with the Vnesheconombank when all accounts in the bank were frozen. Billions of dollars are "roaming" along the Russian border, waiting for the time to rush in and turn this richest country in the world into magic paradise. Many people would say, "We have heard it for seven years and nothing has happened to this ruined country." But Russia has gas, oil, diamonds, valuable metals and minerals. Russia has unique fertile land, rare animals and medicinal mineral waters. Russia has an intelligent labor force and, moreover, people who want to work and who were deprived from this chance by ideology and restrictions.
Russia's entrance into the world's free economic community will cause extrordinary changes in the markets of oil, gas, wheat, timber and so on. Now Russia is ready to come. But the question is: Is the world ready for it?
