With the dismantling of two-time defending champion Pittsburgh, the National League East has become a wide-open race in 1992. Everybody, except Montreal, has a realistic shot of winning.
My predicted order of finish:
1. ST. LOUIS -- Manager: Joe Torre. 1991 record: 84-78.
Torre worked wonders with a group of no-name youngsters and over-the-hill veterans last year. The Cardinals do all the little things right and have become the team to beat.
The big addition is first baseman Andres Galarraga, who fell out of favor in Montreal. Galarraga will have plenty of RBI chances as the Cardinals clean-up hitter, and should see some good pitches with dangerous Pedro Guerrero hitting behind him.
What really makes St. Louis tick is a trio of young hitters -- third baseman Todd Zeile (.280, 81 RBI) and outfielders Ray Lankford (.251, 44 stolen bases) and Felix Jose (.305, 77 RBI).
That starters are nothing special, but the bullpen is scary, with Todd Worrell setting up Lee Smith.
2. NEW YORK -- Manager: Jeff Torborg. 1991 record: 77-84.
Which is scarier -- the switch-hitting murderers' row of Bobby Bonilla, Howard Johnson and Eddie Murray or the thought of those three on defense?
The Mets are loaded offensively, but must try to overcome a suspect defense. Former lead-gloved third baseman Johnson's attempt to move to center field should keep the blooper industry booming.
The pitching staff is boosted by the addition of Bret Saberhagen from the Royals, who has had a great spring. The question is whether Dwight Gooden and Sid Fernandez can come back from injuries.
John Franco is an effective closer, but the rest of the Mets' bullpen is shaky -- yet another reason the Mets are too shaky to pick for first place.
3. PITTSBURGH -- Manager: Jim Leyland. 1991 record: 98-64.
It's a shame that the harsh realities of trying to run a major league franchise in a minor league economy have torn this potential dynasty apart.
Gone, with little or no compensation, from the two-time division champs are Bobby Bonilla, John Smiley and Bill Landrum.
The Pirates still have a strong nucleus of Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke, Doug Drabek and Zane Smith. But Bonds will have to carry the offense now and hope that the weakest bullpen in the division can hold onto late leads.
As a final word, don't discount the possibility of 34-year-old Kirk Gibson giving the Pirates the spark they need to make a run at a divisional three-peat.
4. PHILADELPHIA -- Manager: Jim Fregosi. 1991 record: 78-84.
The Phillies should be a better team in 1992 just because they'll have center fielder Lenny Dykstra (.297, 24 steals) and catcher Darren Daulton (12 homeruns, 42 RBI) for a full season.
Still, Philadelphia could have trouble scoring runs. The offense revolves around 36-year-old Dale Murphy, who may never see 20 home runs again, and John Kruk, who had a career year in 1991. The Phillies are hoping that youngsters Dave Hollins and Wes Chamberlain can step up to the next level and help carry the offense.
Terry Mulholland and Tommy Greene are set in the rotation. Whether or not the Phillies contend depends upon youngsters Andy Ashby and Kyle Abbott.
5. CHICAGO -- Manager: Jim Lefebvre. 1991 record: 77-83.
Some people are actually picking the Cubs to win the division. Obviously, they haven't checked out Chicago's starting rotation.
Greg Maddux is fine as the ace. No. 2 starter Mike Morgan was 14-10 with a 2.78 earned run average for the Dodgers last year, but that was by far the 32-year-old's best season. The No. 3 starter, Danny Jackson, has a history of injuries. After that, it gets even murkier with the likes of Shawn Boskie and Frank Castillo.
As always, the Cubs have a dangerous offense. Mark Grace, Ryne Sandberg and Andre Dawson will put many runs on the board.
But the Cubs' pitching will usually give up more.
6. MONTREAL -- Manager: Tom Runnells. 1991 record: 71-90.
If it's any consolation, the Expos probably have the best young talent of any team in the division.
Bret Barberie (.353 in 57 games), Delino DeShields (56 stolen bases), Marquis Grissom (76 stolen bases) and Larry Walker give Montreal a solid core to build around.
Beyond that, the Expos roster consists mostly of trade bait (Tim Wallach, Ivan Calderon and Denny Martinez) and question marks.



