Clad with voters' anti-Washington sentiment in this election year, the Republican White House is hoping for a turnaround in the anemic economy, while Democrats are banking on the standstill or decline of the economy to thrust them into the presidency.
"The whole presidential election will depend on whether the economy picks up," said Vernon Aspaturian, Evan Pugh Professor of political science. "If the economy improves, Democrats will have lost their main issue and the public will not unseat the incumbent."
Because elections are referendums on how the president handles his job, voters first look to the economy and then to foreign policy, said Michael Young, associate director of the Center for Survey Research at Harrisburg.
"Bush isn't perceived as doing well," Young said. "In general, 1992 is a year of protest vote."
Frustrated voters are looking for a political party to blame for the economy and recent government scandals, Aspaturian said, noting the savings and loan scandal.
And neither party shies away from offering the other as a sacrificial lamb.
Republicans blame the nation's domestic problems on the Democratic Congress, which was recently involved in the check-bouncing scandal, while Democratic leaders fault the Republican White House, Aspaturian said.
"The Bush campaign will concentrate on the Democratic administration of House affairs," Aspaturian said. "He'll say, 'If they couldn't keep track of a small bank, are those the type of people you want running the country?' "
Although candidates have touched upon a cornucopia of domestic issues, the economy will drive and frame the presidential contest, Young said.
"Other issues have become less important," he added. "Voters want to hear about the economy."
America wants to know where Washington is going to get the money for its economic reform programs, said Simon Duke, assistant professor of political science.
People want to know where the economy is headed and who can turn it around, he added.
Thomas Fox, professor of economics, said, "Most economists are predicting a modest improvement by early summer but not nearly what the Republican party is hoping for."
Some political watchdogs said although the economy will be a focus, other issues will be addressed.
Character will be the other dominant domestic issue, Aspaturian said.
"There are a lot of skeletons still in (Bill) Clinton's closet," he said. "The public doesn't know about them because the press has been kind to Clinton -- he's energetic, they like his wife and he's got a good president's face."
Republicans are waiting until the general election season to play on charges that Clinton had a 12-year extramarital affair, Aspaturian added.
"All of the other issues -- crime, education, health care -- pale in significance," he said.
The worse the economy becomes, the more Clinton will push the economic issue and the more the Republicans will push the character issue, he added.
"The Democrats' prospects all hinge on the deterioration of the economy," Aspaturian said.
Voters may be focusing on the economy because it is difficult to understand the issues.
"Candidates are not standing up and saying, 'This is what I'm for.' They're saying, 'This is what I'm not for,' " Duke said.



