While most people were scribbling in UNLV as sure shots in the NCAA basketball tournament, a few risk takers were going after the long shots. The risk takers won, and the UNLV bandwagon could only wonder what went wrong.

Maybe they learned their lesson: Never bet on the sure shot, whether its in basketball or professional wrestling -- it'll get you every time. The No. 1-ranked women's basketball team also fell to this cruel rule of nature, dropping its first game of the NCAA Tournament.

Which brings us to the American League West, and why the Oakland Athletics will not repeat as the division winner. Sure, they have great pitching, power hitting and solid defense . . . but as the 1990 World Series shows, sometimes that just isn't enough. When you're on top for as long as the A's have been, it's hard to keep focused -- especially with Jose Canseco's big mouth.

Look for the Chicago White Sox to unseat the A's.

1. Chicago White Sox -- This young and hungry ball club will be energized with new uniforms and a new ballpark. The outfield of newly acquired Tim Raines, Lance Johnson and Sammy Sosa, have the speed to keep the opposition from getting the doubles and triples. Their speed will also help on the offensive end -- each player had more than 30 stolen bases last year, with Raines notching 49.

Newly acquired Bo Jackson may still be able to make an impact at the end of this season, and his speed and power can do nothing but good for the White Sox.

Manager Jeff Torborg turned the White Sox drastically around with his injection of youth into the lineup. Now, last year's rookies will have a year of experience under their belt, plus the knowledge that they turned a 92-game loser into a second-place finisher with 94 wins.

Relief pitcher Bobby Thigpen, who saved a record 57 games, will continue to get the club out of sticky situations and to the top of the AL West. Also, keep an eye of Chicago's 1990 top-draft choice Alex Fernandez. Last year, he had 10 strikeouts to one base on balls.

2. Oakland Athletics -- Although this team has won 202 games in the last two seasons, age and ego will be the reason the A's won't be on top this year. Although the combination of Dave Stewart and Bob Welch with Dennis Eckersley in the pen may have given the A's the strongest pitching in the league, they all can't have the lasting power of Nolan Ryan. All three are in their mid-30s, and the arms have to start giving sometime.

And while Canseco may be an excellent player, his constant bragging and squabbling is sure to divide the team. Also, Canseco has had back and wrist injuries, and whether he is fully recovered remains to be seen.

3. Texas Rangers -- The club put together a 62-47 record from June 7 to the end of the season, the third best in the majors, and its winning ways will probably continue into this season. The Rangers probably will improve on last year's record of 83-79, but tough competition from the A's and White Sox should keep them from contending. To be successful, the Rangers have to cut down on errors. Last season the team allowed 81 unearned runs.

Ryan seems to still be going strong at 44 -- last year he pitched a record sixth no-hitter -- and the Rangers can count on him for some wins. But a major concern is who will be behind the plate. The Rangers brought up catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Bill Haselman to try out for the starting spot.

4. Seattle Mariners -- Ken Griffey, Jr. should lead this team out of 14 years of losing seasons. The 20-year-old sensation led the team in hits (179), triples (7), home runs (22) and RBI (80). The youngster was also solid in the outfield, where he was joined by his father. The senior Griffey batted .377 with three home runs and 18 RBI in only 21 games after being traded by Cincinnati. Also, Seattle has strong pitching, ranking third in the AL last year with a 3.69 ERA.

5. California Angels -- Errors! Errors! Errors! Ninety-three unearned runs was a major reason why the Angels 80-82 record left them 23 games out of first at the end of last season. If the Angels can keep the ball from going between their legs and ancients Dave Winfield and Bert Blyleven can keep Father Time away, the team might break .500. If not, the Angels will be in the basement.

6. Kansas City Royals -- Bye, Bye Bo. After superstar Jackson's hip injury, the Royals told him to air out, and now the offense rest mostly on George Brett. Although Brett won the batting title last year, he now is 39 years old. The Royals will have to find some way to improve from their 75-86 record last year.

7. Minnesota Twins -- The team had only 100 home runs last year (Oh, could they use a Cecil Fielder). This lack of power and the Twins paltry pitching should keep the them at the bottom of the division.