It would be easy to pick the Toronto Blue Jays to win the American League Least title this season. Every pre-season magazine except Popular Mechanics picked the Jays to finish first. But what makes this team any better than the teams that have underacheived for the better part of eight years?

Blue Jays General Manager Pat Gillick -- previously nicknamed "Stand Pat" because he never made trades -- never saw a trade he didn't like this offseason. Gone are former MVP George Bell (21 HRs, 86 RBI), former home run champ Fred McGriff (.300, 35 HRs, 88 RBI) All-Star Tony Fernandez and lightning-fast Junior Felix. The moves are supposed to reshape a Jays' clubhouse known to be divided in the past.

If you listen to the Blue Jays' players this spring it's worked. They all seem to be having a great time chumming it up in Dunedin, Fla. There's only one problem. Through Tuesday the 1991 Jays were 8-17 in spring training. Only Detroit's 8-19 record was worse. But you know what they say about spring training, eh.

1. Toronto Blue Jays -- The Jays will win the East because soft-spoken manager Cito Gaston won't have to spend time babying overgrown-adolescents like Bell, Fernandez and Felix anymore and will be able to finally manage one of the most talented teams in the majors.

In the blockbuster deal that sent Fernandez and McGriff to San Diego, the Jays got a proven RBI-man Joe Carter (24 HRs, 115 RBI) and All-Star second baseman Roberto Alomar (.287, 24 SBs). Blue Jays' fans will miss McGriff's youth and towering Skydome-homers that hit off the Hard Rock Cafe, but Carter should make them forget.

The key to this team is Gold-Glove third baseman Kelly Gruber (.274, 31 HRs, 118 RBI) who finally lived up to his potential last season. Last season's rookie sensation John Olerud (14 HRs, 48 RBI) will step in for McGriff as the every-day first baseman. In the trade that sent Felix to the Angels, the Jays got Gold-Glove center fielder Devon White to give them a solid defensive outfield.

Veteran pitcher Dave Stieb (18-6, 2.93 ERA) leads a solid starting five. Stopper Tom Henke (2.17 ERA, 32 saves) should get plenty of opportunities.

2. Baltimore Orioles -- The Orioles made two key moves in the offseason that should enable them to stay close to the Jays. A club known to be very stingy in the past, the O's reached into the wallet to sign free-agents Glenn Davis (22 HRs, 64 RBI) from Houston and Dwight Evans (13 HRs, 63 RBI), adding some punch to the middle of their lineup.

With Davis hitting in the four spot, it can only make All-Star shortstop Cal Ripken (.250, 21 HRs, 84 RBI), who slipped slightly last season, that much better. Second baseman and little brother of Cal, Billy Ripkin (.291, 38 RBI) has turned himself into a very good player.

The O's problem could be pitching, where young Ben McDonald (8-5, 2.43 ERA) will be the ace of the staff for many years. Crafty Dave Johnson (13-9, 4.10 ERA) will keep Baltimore in most games. But besides those two the Orioles are very thin.

In the pen, the O's are solid, and if they can get into the eighth with a lead, stopper Gregg Olson (6-5, 2.42 ERA, 37 saves) will usually wrap it up.

3. Boston Red Sox -- The Sox will definitely punish opposing pitchers this year. Their outfield of Mike Greenwell (.297, 14 HRs, 73 RBI) in left, Ellis Burks (.296, 21 HRs, 89 RBI) and Tom Brunansky (16 HRs, 73 RBI) is the best offensively in the AL. And believe it or not, all could improve on last year's stats.

Boston has improved its starting pitching by by adding free agents Danny Darwin from Houston and Matt Young from Seattle. Roger Clemens (21-6, 1.93 ERA), when he's not screaming obscenities at umpires or fighting under-cover cops, is awesome.

On paper the Sox are probably better than the Jays and the O's everywhere but the bullpen. Stopper Jeff Reardon (5-3, 3.16 ERA, 21 saves) is productive, but besides him there's nothing.

4. New York Yankees -- The Yankees are young and have played spirited baseball this spring. The Bronx Bombers can score some runs with Don Mattingly (injured most of last season) at first, Steve Sax at second, and Roberto Kelly (.285, 61 RBI, 42 SBs) and newcomer Hensley "Bam Bam" Muelens in the outfield.

Last year's rookie sensation Kevin Maas, who hit 21 homers in 79 games last season, is said to be on the trading blocks. If the Yanks can get NL-MVP Barry Bonds from Pittsburgh -- which is trying very hard to unload him -- this offense could be explosive.

But the Yankees still have no starting pitching, no relief pitching and no hope of breaking the top three in the East.

5. Detroit Tigers -- The Tigers starting lineup features home-run king Cecil Fielder (.277, 51 HRs, 132 RBI), along with power hitting free-agent Rob Deer from Milwaukee and Mickey Tettleton -- acquired in a trade from Baltimore. That threesome sounds like a lot of home runs and a lot more strikeouts.

Detroit's problem is pitching. They have even less of it than the Yankees. The Tigers have enough pop to stay out of the cellar but will give up too many runs to compete.

6. Milwaukee Brewers -- The "Brew Crew" also has some impressive hitters in Robin Yount, Paul Molitor and Gary Sheffield. When they get on they are not afraid to run. They led the AL in steals for the fourth straight year. But their starting pitchers must overachieve and stay healthy if the Brewers are to make any kind of move. Don't count on it.

7. Cleveland Indians -- It's been 36 years since the Tribe won a pennant and they are still several decades away. Catcher Sandy Alomar and center fielder Alex Cole will battle to be the Indians' lone All-Star representative. But that will be the only competition at the "Mistake by the Lake" this season.