Sorry Pittsburgh, but you can't win in 1991.

Based on the National League East rotation of winners -- no team has repeated since Philadelphia from 1976-78 -- that figures to hold true this seasson. Since 1987, when St. Louis won, the Mets, Cubs and of course Pirates have all followed suit respectively. By that logic, this year's race should come down to Philadelphia (who last won the division in 1983) and Montreal (a winner in the strike season of 1981).

Dream on Phillies and Expos fans.

So with the Pirates jinxed by history and the Phillies, Expos and Cardinals trying to rebuild, it should be -- for the third time in eight years -- another Cubs-Mets duel for the title.

1. Chicago Cubs -- If it comes down to a shootout, then the Cubs should make it 3-and-0 over the Mets. The addition of George Bell (21 home runs, 86 RBIs) to an already solid outfield of Jerome Walton and Andre Dawson gives Chicago one of the best outfields in baseball. Add to that the bats of Ryne Sandberg (.306, 40 homers, 100 RBIs) and Mark Grace (.309) and the club's offense -- as always -- should make Wrigley Field a fun place to be all summer.

But for the Cubbies to win, the two weak links on the team in recent years -- pitching and third base -- must be filled. The addition of Dave Smith as a right-handed closer (23 saves, 2.39 ERA) should help, but injury questions over Danny Jackson and Rick Sutcliffe weigh heavily. If they're healthy along with Greg Maddux and Mike Harkey, the pitching dilemma will be an afterthought. As for third base, manager Don Zimmer says Gary Scott will be his opening day starter. Who? Enough said.

2. New York Mets -- As always, the club will have excellent pitching, with Doc Gooden looking to impress all with his new three-year $15.4 million deal. Frank Viola and David Cone add quality depth and will carry the team a long way. But the loss of Sid Fernandez (broken arm) for a good chunk of the season means New York needs a fourth starter.

It will be interesting to see if the Mets capitalize on the exit of Darryl Strawberry. They certainly won't miss his bickering. Howard Johnson (23 HR, 93 RBIs) will have to carry the load of the offense and adjust to his new full-time shortstop position. Cardinal transfer Vince Coleman will need to add energy and speed to a previous power lineup.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates -- If the Pirates had enough money to appease all of their millionaire-many-times-over-wanna-bees, this could be a repeat year for the club. But in-house squabbling all spring between manager Jim Leyland and 1990 MVP Barry Bonds (.301, 33 HR, 114 RBIs) and rumors of right fielder Bobby Bonilla (32 HR, 120 RBIs) getting traded won't bring back memories of the "We are Family" year of 1979. That could cause enough distraction to prevent a repeat season.

Last year's Cy Young winner, Doug Drabek (22-6, 2.76 ERA) anchors a solid staff, but Zane Smith and John Smiley have been known to be inconsistent throughout their careers. Centerfield is secure with Andy Van Slyke, but the Pirates will need for Gary Redus (.247, six HR, 23 RBIs) to fill in for current-Brave Sid Bream (.270, 15 HR, 67 RBIs).

4. Montreal Expos -- Every year for the last several, the Expos have found a way to surprise everyone by clawing their way into contention early and then letting it slip in August and early September. This year should be no exception. But with all its young talent, it's just a matter of maturing and getting the star players to like -- and want to stay -- in Montreal.

Last year's rookie-of-the-year runner-up Delino DeShields (.289, 42 stolen bases) and other first-year phenoms Marquis Grissom and Larry Walker (19 HR) led this Expo team which is heavy in youngsters. Fifteen rookies found their way into the lineup last year. Expect a repeat performance with another tauted rookie class. But rookie mistakes might mean another non-title year.

Both offensively and defensively, the team will miss longtime leader, Tim Raines, who left for the White Sox. To fill that gap, Ivan Calderon and Andres Gallaraga will have to play up to their potential and Tim Wallach (.296, 21 HR, 98 RBI) will have to be his usual steady self.

5. Philadelphia Phillies -- The battle for the NL East cellar comes down to the Phillies and the Cardinals with the boys in the peppermint pinstripes edging out the Redbirds. The Phils have lacked pitching since the days of John Denny and Steve Carlton, and this season is no different. With the loss of Ken Howell for the first few months of the season, that gaping hole should fill in as the team's weak spot.

But for the first time in several years, the team could be on an upswing. Last season's 77 wins was 10 more than 1989. Lenny Dykstra's (.325) hot bat will have to last until September and Dale Murphy will have to hit more than 20 home runs for the squad to continue its move up the division.

6. St. Louis Cardinals -- Saving $41 million might turn out to be a poor investment for the lowly Cardinals. With Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Terry Pendleton and lefty Ken Dayley gone, so are the glory days.

For a team that desperately needs offense, it has to settle for aging Pedro Guerrero and Ozzie Smith. Pitching-wise, Jose DeLeon (7-19) needs to win more, and whoever else fills in, needs to do enough to get to Lee Smith and Todd Worrell in the late innings.