Why are Americans willing to forsake the science of meteorology for a musky-smelling fur ball poking his head out of the ground today?

A University professor of Pennsylvania folklore, Samuel Bayard, says Groundhog Day is neither a Pennsylvanian nor a European tradition.

"This is ancient stuff," he says.

Two animals, the bear and the badger, hibernate all winter long, Bayard said. "When they came out of their burrows and caves primitive people would think that these beings had been down in the underworld of the dead. If they didn't see their shadows they had to go back down to get them. Their shadows were their souls.

Bayard says he believes the groundhog tradition is based on this feat, witnessed by primitives.

Today, groundhogs are responsible for predicting weather, but it must have been divorced from the soul idea, Bayard says.

University students have their own ideas -- or lack of them -- when it comes to Groundhog Day.

"I think that someone saw a groundhog's shadow and thought it was a good idea," Tracy Scarborough (junior-business logistics) says.

Amy Schmetterling (junior-general arts and sciences) says she is not sure how the tradition started. "It wasn't here, in the United States. I think it was based on something like the lengths of the seasons."

What will Punxsutawney Phil -- the infamous American groundhog -- predict today?

According to meteorologist Paul Yeager, the weather in Punxsutawney should be cloudy with periods of rain, meaning that Phil should not be able to see his shadow, predicting a quick end to winter.

But Yeager says, "If they want him to see his shadow he'll see his shadow, especially with the camera lights and all. If anyone actually believes that a groundhog seeing or not seeing his shadow will really predict weather, they may be disappointed."

But a pagan festival theory still presides, dating back more than 2,000 years.

During Roman times, the Church took the pagan feast of Lupercalia, and Christianized it into "Candlemas."

English folklore from about 1648, reports that any church not removing Christmas decorations on Candlemas Eve would result in the death of parishioners on Old May Day. English farmers, who considered Candlemas a holy day, thought their crops would bring a higher yield if Feb. 2 was deemed a special farm date.

About the turn of the century, weather finally began to play a role in the Feb. 2 festivities.

Farmers had a great many superstitions about the weather and its effects on their crops' future.

According to The American Book of Days, the early 1900s brought about "a group of merry wags" who lived near Quarryville in Lancaster County. These men organized the Slumbering Groundhog Lodge, and on the morning of Feb. 2 the members would don silk hats and carry canes into fields where the woodchucks -- also known as groundhogs -- burrowed.

When a burrow was located by one of the members they would all "assemble" and wait for the rodent to awaken from hibernation. They would watch his behavior, and "then return to the village where they interpret his actions and report them to the public."

In our civilized nation and state today we do not need to resort to wearing silk hats and prodding the unsuspecting creature with sticks.