The results of last night's presidential caucuses in Iowa have less effect than the media plays up, but they do have a mist-clearing effect to narrow the crowded field of candidates, University professors said.
"It depends on how the press plays it and what kind of spin is used on the results," said Robert E.O'Connor, associate professor of political science. "Candidates need to hope the media says they did unexpectedly well."
Although Iowa does not have many national convention delegates compared to most other states, the early caucus determines if and where a lot of funding will emerge for the candidates, said James Eisenstein, professor of political science.
"The early caucus really doesn't tell much, but it is a self-fulfilling prophecy for the media to play it big because that is what the public sees," he said. "The outcome is over-interpreted by the media."
However, the caucus does provide millions of dollars in free publicity for the winners, O'Connor said.
"Whoever wins will have the opportunity to present their message to the American public," he said, adding that the candidate in sixth place will have a hard time convincing people to donate to his campaign.
Although statistics have been compiled for how far Iowa caucus winners go on the presidential trail, they are basically inconsistent from one race to another four years later, O'Connor said.
Sen. Albert Gore, D-Tenn., chose not to focus on the Iowa race because he realized his weakness in the Midwest and wanted to build a stronghold for Super Tuesday on March 8, O'Connor said. The March primaries and caucuses are largely made up of Southern states and comprise about one-third of the delegates nationwide. O'Connor said Gore is hoping the media will not play him up as the loser because he did not put the effort into Iowa.
"It's a tricky and dangerous strategy Gore is using," he said.
Candidates can take advantage of knowing how to do well in one caucus or another, Eisenstein said.
"Ten days from now, we won't have 13 candidates in the race," O'Connor said.
Candidates who finish third or lower in Iowa and the New Hampshire primary will have little hope of continuing, yet Democrat Jesse Jackson and Republican Pat Robertson, have "hard-core suppporters" and will continue for the duration, O'Connor said.
Iowa, located next to Kansas, is very important for Kansas Sen. Robert Dole, O'Connor said.
"If he loses there he's in big trouble," he said.
The New Hampshire primary is also prominent in the eyes of the media and the candidates because it follows only a week after Iowa. After New Hampshire no primaries or caucuses are scheduled for another two weeks.

